TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

College Football · resolved market

Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Kennesaw Stateof Kennesaw State, Jacksonville State
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$239,195
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$238,445

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $239,195 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 276 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in College Football
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16b2…a881backed Jacksonville State41c58,252$23,895 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23,894.6493548.4%453 W · 482 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…4033backed Kennesaw State58c43,051$25,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,051.4819362.2%120 W · 73 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Kennesaw State58c26,242$15,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,021.532745.6%149 W · 178 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Jacksonville State54c23,343$12,513 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,513.1258850.2%295 W · 293 L+23.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Kennesaw State60c22,921$13,686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,235.1562843.6%274 W · 354 L+7.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-14.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Jacksonville State40c12,871$5,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,182.786243.7%377 W · 485 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Kennesaw State57c11,857$6,812 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,045.1640541.2%167 W · 238 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-24.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f13…e0fdbacked Jacksonville State42c11,229$4,724 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,723.9814752.4%77 W · 70 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xedf0…1e2abacked Kennesaw State56c10,799$6,047 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,751.561060%6 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Kennesaw State55c10,000$5,544 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,455.4439954.1%216 W · 183 L+16.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe9cb…d096backed Kennesaw State65c9,199$6,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,192.2313933.1%46 W · 93 L-8.4wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Jacksonville State41c7,310$2,997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,997.1516234%55 W · 107 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Jacksonville State20c5,584$1,111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,111.3426244.3%116 W · 146 L-1.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jacksonville State42c5,467$2,295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,295.332,01349.6%999 W · 1,014 L+24.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x309f…9282backed Kennesaw State64c4,695$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,695.065565.5%36 W · 19 L+4.8wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+15.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Kennesaw State41c4,642$1,906 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,736.0463243.7%276 W · 356 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+138.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Jacksonville State36c4,534$1,632 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,632.1519842.9%85 W · 113 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jacksonville State44c4,000$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76038142.5%162 W · 219 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Jacksonville State32c3,807$1,212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,212.146753.7%36 W · 31 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98a3…d61ebacked Jacksonville State43c3,427$1,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,458.3610848.1%52 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Kennesaw State68c2,990$2,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$954.2464841.2%267 W · 381 L+12.4wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Kennesaw State57c2,790$1,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,212.3120450.5%103 W · 101 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jacksonville State12c2,704$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.7240244.8%180 W · 222 L+1.6wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed Jacksonville State44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$879.9710742.1%45 W · 62 L-4.5wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Kennesaw State55c1,975$1,086 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.6552449.4%259 W · 265 L-2.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x38c2…d3a7backed Jacksonville State45c1,889$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8501942.1%8 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-17.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb40…a284backed Jacksonville State44c1,842$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.7634529.9%103 W · 242 L-21.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-26.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Jacksonville State43c1,745$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7507136.6%26 W · 45 L-7.1wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-26.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2800…4dd0backed Kennesaw State59c1,695$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$694.92333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick53cpaid-43.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Jacksonville State44c1,547$681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$680.663056.7%17 W · 13 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x30a2…f3a4backed Jacksonville State45c1,499$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$674.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid-10.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Jacksonville State29c1,380$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$395.623751.1%121 W · 116 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb2ee…9c7fbacked Kennesaw State26c1,199$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.38425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7658…c052backed Jacksonville State45c1,041$468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.45366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+93.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Jacksonville State20c1,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7b45…41e3backed Jacksonville State42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Jacksonville State45c1,000$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4507040%28 W · 42 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d8…ad91backed Jacksonville State43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4308145.7%37 W · 44 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Jacksonville State44c914.7$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.4749443.7%216 W · 278 L-9.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x182d…73e9backed Kennesaw State58c860$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.213444%59 W · 75 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x65cf…c28dbacked Kennesaw State55c855$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.754100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+44.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Jacksonville State45c827.86$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.7750358.1%292 W · 211 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Kennesaw State55c775$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$348.7581847.9%392 W · 426 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fc9…fa88backed Kennesaw State48c764.02$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.73366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick41cpaid+28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb589…33d4backed Kennesaw State21c761$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$601.193748.6%18 W · 19 L+6.4wins+0.17per pick31cpaid+72.1%equal weight62+0.10 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Kennesaw State62c742$459 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.541770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+37.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2934…0b51backed Jacksonville State44c650$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28613531.9%43 W · 92 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa667…2951backed Kennesaw State55c644$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$289.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jacksonville State41c636$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.7649253.5%263 W · 229 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdda8…0e21backed Kennesaw State55c613$337 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.85366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa94d…087bbacked Kennesaw State50c612.43$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.43450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6643…0109backed Jacksonville State44c599.92$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.966847.1%32 W · 36 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc480…937abacked Jacksonville State23c552.12$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1273625%9 W · 27 L-1.7wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc89d…5909backed Jacksonville State45c530$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.53948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-9.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Jacksonville State41c500$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2055549.1%27 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+14.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Jacksonville State42c500$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21013242.4%56 W · 76 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Jacksonville State42c499.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9942244.5%188 W · 234 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Jacksonville State45c444.44$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2008752.9%46 W · 41 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Kennesaw State55c443.02$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$199.3638450.5%194 W · 190 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfc6d…156cbacked Kennesaw State55c428$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$192.62100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+54.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Jacksonville State44c426$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.4417361.3%106 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa50…81f9backed Kennesaw State55c422.07$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4dba…daa8backed Jacksonville State46c422.07$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.15333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ba5…aaf1backed Jacksonville State43c415.91$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.7415252.6%80 W · 72 L+9.9wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Jacksonville State6c400$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22490%0 W · 49 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Kennesaw State58c383.6$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.1113845.7%63 W · 75 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Jacksonville State44c376.54$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.687642.1%32 W · 44 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x06e6…87e6backed Kennesaw State58c374$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.089457.4%54 W · 40 L+5.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5134…90f6backed Kennesaw State58c344.83$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.832100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Jacksonville State33c342.94$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.7655350.3%278 W · 275 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-11%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Kennesaw State76c333$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.252630.8%8 W · 18 L-4.8wins-0.19per pick49cpaid-47.6%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Kennesaw State58c328.69$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.6117443.7%76 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-6.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a00…87e5backed Jacksonville State45c320$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d95…985abacked Kennesaw State56c320$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1e3…39f0backed Jacksonville State45c303.33$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.54252.4%22 W · 20 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Jacksonville State45c300$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13520950.2%105 W · 104 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc684…2228backed Kennesaw State26c300$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.526750.9%136 W · 131 L+21.7wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+1.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8470…74bdbacked Jacksonville State44c293.78$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1301030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Jacksonville State33c287.85$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6726940.5%109 W · 160 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Kennesaw State57c273.43$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.754243.2%234 W · 308 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Kennesaw State56c267.86$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8618338.8%71 W · 112 L-12.3wins-0.07per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x57b9…e9b4backed Kennesaw State59c254.24$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.245149%25 W · 26 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Kennesaw State55c246$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.729249%143 W · 149 L+0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8ccc…71f5backed Jacksonville State44c230$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dfe…74c8backed Jacksonville State44c228$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.321241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-22.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x569b…857ebacked Kennesaw State45c222.72$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.72250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid+11.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xfb04…3ce1backed Jacksonville State45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-39.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Jacksonville State45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009154.9%50 W · 41 L+6.5wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4085…583fbacked Jacksonville State45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe351…e48dbacked Jacksonville State43c216.37$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.086241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-21.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Jacksonville State45c203$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3520757.5%119 W · 88 L+13.3wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Jacksonville State44c200$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8810242.2%43 W · 59 L+2.8wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed Jacksonville State45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$904643.5%20 W · 26 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cfa…7d4ebacked Kennesaw State56c180$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd40…73a2backed Jacksonville State22c156.41$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.4111221.4%24 W · 88 L-3.5wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-22.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Jacksonville State25c154.23$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.7520553.7%110 W · 95 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Jacksonville State35c142.86$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506051.7%31 W · 29 L+4.2wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8d89…d5a6backed Jacksonville State45c133.42$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.04966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Jacksonville State45c133$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.851,09041.7%455 W · 635 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa038…341dbacked Jacksonville State34c130.98$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$446030%18 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.