MLB · resolved market
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ffc8a1322a2611e70632089abd5e8e3580ff27245b15d1adcf8041ec019ace2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Boston Red Sox, Cleveland Guardians
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,918
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,918 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 13,848$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,848.09 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 9,000$5,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,850 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 5,464$3,442 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,442.09 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 80c | 2,021$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.05 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb946…2671backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 2,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,299.96 | 241 | 50.6%122 W · 119 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 1,922$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,247.59 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 1,325$853 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852.85 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 19c | 872.26$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$710.46 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 659$426 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.34 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Boston Red Sox | 13c | 535$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.15 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3bd…6dddbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 500$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 382$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.3 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 35c | 306.08$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.95 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 269.35$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.38 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Cleveland Guardians | 63c | 190.48$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 33c | 185.36$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.33 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Boston Red Sox | 11c | 179$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.31 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 126.35$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.86 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 105$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.2 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.54 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 42c | 91.13$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 78.76$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.99 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 64c | 60$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.4 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cleveland Guardians | 70c | 52$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Boston Red Sox | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb6…4fe4backed Cleveland Guardians | 65c | 36.58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.78 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Boston Red Sox | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Boston Red Sox | 37c | 29.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Boston Red Sox | 65c | 25.28$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Cleveland Guardians | 66c | 21.21$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Cleveland Guardians | 68c | 17.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.