MLB · resolved market
Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x023bd87765fd6d913b326c8d0975475f81032d66d4174a0e15ee6cfbf331f8d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $63,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $72,901
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 46c | 10,000$4,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,600 | 1,151 | 49.2%566 W · 585 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Over | 54c | 9,418$5,090 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,328.23 | 2,291 | 52.5%1,202 W · 1,089 L | +24.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Over | 55c | 9,081$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,081.13 | 238 | 46.6%111 W · 127 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…3987backed Under | 46c | 7,835$3,604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,604.16 | 135 | 61.5%83 W · 52 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 54c | 3,528$1,893 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.17 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Over | 58c | 3,000$1,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 32c | 2,761$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.15 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 69c | 2,674$1,842 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.79 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 2,654$1,168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.68 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 42c | 1,943$816 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$816.24 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 46c | 1,600$731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$731.19 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 45c | 1,462$658 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$657.75 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 45c | 1,341$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.92 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Over | 56c | 1,326$745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.49 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Under | 45c | 1,297$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.78 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Over | 53c | 821.95$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.32 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 55c | 702.45$389 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$313 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 45c | 500.41$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.14 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 54c | 495$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$227.7 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 57c | 455.78$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.95 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 55c | 454.55$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.55 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 45c | 357$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.65 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Over | 59c | 334.64$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.87 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3449…abdfbacked Under | 44c | 307.99$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.52 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Over | 74c | 215.88$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.17 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 26c | 186$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Over | 57c | 181.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.16 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 59c | 179.64$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.13 | 994 | 47.3%470 W · 524 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Over | 72c | 178.73$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 45c | 158.59$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.37 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 64c | 138$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.68 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 30c | 133.52$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Under | 34c | 99.35$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.23 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Under | 32c | 85$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 45c | 80.2$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 1,062 | 49.2%523 W · 539 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e4…53bbbacked Over | 55c | 75.85$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Under | 45c | 60$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86a0…bb4ebacked Under | 45c | 59.38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Under | 45c | 54$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.48 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Over | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Over | 54c | 37.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2a…0a73backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 254 | 48.4%123 W · 131 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Over | 54c | 36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.56 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 65c | 35.44$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce5f…ab17backed Under | 29c | 35.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 353 | 41.1%145 W · 208 L | -16.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 56c | 35.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.47 | 613 | 52.5%322 W · 291 L | +29.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Under | 44c | 35.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.47 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb7…f72dbacked Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3603…22edbacked Under | 34c | 31.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 518 | 49.4%256 W · 262 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Over | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 44c | 29$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 69c | 28.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Over | 72c | 23.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8968…c3c1backed Over | 56c | 23.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62fc…08bcbacked Under | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Under | 45c | 22.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 58c | 21.87$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.16 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 54c | 20.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc56b…772abacked Over | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 107 | 59.8%64 W · 43 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.