MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec7bc08dd060e0fcf7d491128bc49bdb9afa544fdcc8d51b6ae47fde6c325349
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Boston Red Soxof Cleveland Guardians, Boston Red Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,967
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,077
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,967 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 6,744$2,879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,879.42 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Boston Red Sox | 57c | 5,277$2,987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,289.13 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 4,125$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,362.97 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 3,409$2,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125.13 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 1,521$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.92 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Boston Red Sox | 53c | 870.4$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.1 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc235…99f8backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 820$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.6 | 890 | 53.1%473 W · 417 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 607.88$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.6 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Boston Red Sox | 64c | 596.25$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.52 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 567.63$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.45 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e2f…f9babacked Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 548.78$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.78 | 726 | 55.4%402 W · 324 L | +40.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Boston Red Sox | 57c | 513.05$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.48 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac65…cfe6backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 477.61$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.61 | 137 | 59.1%81 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6f…1bc0backed Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 465.7$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.45 | 61 | 49.2%30 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Boston Red Sox | 61c | 388.7$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.59 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a8…6764backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 338.31$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.26 | 264 | 38.3%101 W · 163 L | -6.9wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Boston Red Sox | 62c | 332.53$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.09 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Boston Red Sox | 52c | 330.81$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.65 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 116.75$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.44 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb1b…69f2backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 80.91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 1,056 | 48.3%510 W · 546 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 74.35$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.76 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3894…decfbacked Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 64.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.49 | 375 | 51.2%192 W · 183 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Boston Red Sox | 72c | 63.55$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.9 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5d…241cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 52.17$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 50.24$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 556 | 43.9%244 W · 312 L | -38.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d91…f592backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 47.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Cleveland Guardians | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 465 | 57.2%266 W · 199 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…d381backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 45.45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Boston Red Sox | 66c | 43.72$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed Boston Red Sox | 66c | 37.03$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.59 | 779 | 51.1%398 W · 381 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Cleveland Guardians | 33c | 35.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 597 | 49.9%298 W · 299 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 31.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cbf2backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 31.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.69 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x000a…6cf7backed Cleveland Guardians | 45c | 31.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 252 | 60.7%153 W · 99 L | +17.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Boston Red Sox | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.75 | 1,172 | 49.1%575 W · 597 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf3…70e3backed Boston Red Sox | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 140 | 57.9%81 W · 59 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc243…5e94backed Cleveland Guardians | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 121 | 43.8%53 W · 68 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Boston Red Sox | 74c | 26.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7a9…87e2backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Boston Red Sox | 78c | 22.72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb0…dbc2backed Boston Red Sox | 67c | 22.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.39 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Boston Red Sox | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansBoston Red Sox won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 10.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 4.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 5.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 6.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 8.5Over won
- Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-4.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Boston Red Sox (-5.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-2.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-3.5)Boston Red Sox won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Boston Red Sox vs. Cleveland GuardiansYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.