TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$20,738
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,143

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,738 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc807…c12bbacked Texas Rangers58c11,395$6,608 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,787.2350553.5%270 W · 235 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs42c3,064$1,288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,287.9211,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Chicago Cubs43c2,414$1,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.1373748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs42c1,752$736 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$735.823,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Texas Rangers75c1,713$1,287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.072,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf26…6fe2backed Texas Rangers57c1,203$686 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.324247.6%20 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Chicago Cubs42c1,100$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4626746.3%31 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32cc…bb62backed Chicago Cubs44c1,095$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$481.9616543%71 W · 94 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs41c1,001$410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.368,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Texas Rangers59c1,000$590 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41071044.5%316 W · 394 L-23.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs42c1,000$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4202,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Chicago Cubs25c802$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.181,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago Cubs25c784.08$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.711,73749.1%852 W · 885 L+7.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs42c600$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2526,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Chicago Cubs44c570$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.822548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a34…56cfbacked Chicago Cubs44c531.73$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$233.9628053.9%151 W · 129 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs43c530.27$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$226.518,40347.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L+76.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Texas Rangers56c403.04$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.341,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs42c390.82$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.141,28449.5%635 W · 649 L-1.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc23…8283backed Texas Rangers57c350.88$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.8843153.6%231 W · 200 L+10.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10056946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x83a3…6292backed Texas Rangers57c210.53$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5366551.1%340 W · 325 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbaac…ff10backed Texas Rangers57c200$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864153.7%22 W · 19 L-4.0wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-18.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Chicago Cubs42c148.05$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.883540%14 W · 21 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-18.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Texas Rangers56c141.48$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.251,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f42…8680backed Texas Rangers57c131.58$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.588150.6%41 W · 40 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d3…91aabacked Chicago Cubs44c113.84$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.091346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago Cubs42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421,84550.7%936 W · 909 L-4.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs44c97$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6872154.2%391 W · 330 L+20.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+144.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd4d5…a8dabacked Texas Rangers59c93.22$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2220955.5%116 W · 93 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa188…62eabacked Chicago Cubs44c90.91$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4025248%121 W · 131 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Chicago Cubs41c83.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.3655052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f50…069bbacked Chicago Cubs44c79.55$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3516345.4%74 W · 89 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+6.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa804…bdc1backed Chicago Cubs42c79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.188446.4%39 W · 45 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Chicago Cubs34c78.51$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.831,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb81e…8ab9backed Texas Rangers59c70$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.747848.5%232 W · 246 L-15.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbbe2…6158backed Texas Rangers58c67.24$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.2446759.7%279 W · 188 L+2.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs43c60.58$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.052,94751.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L-34.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs43c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51,66143.5%722 W · 939 L-0.5wins0.00per pick43cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs42c49.91$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.945,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Chicago Cubs22c47.72$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6682551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x476b…0afabacked Chicago Cubs44c45.45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205757.9%33 W · 24 L+5.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Chicago Cubs34c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.426553.2%141 W · 124 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b0b…12ffbacked Chicago Cubs43c43.56$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.7314344.8%64 W · 79 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Chicago Cubs43c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.21,00148.3%483 W · 518 L-15.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50fd…ee77backed Texas Rangers57c35.09$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.0933051.8%171 W · 159 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x07c9…9f5bbacked Texas Rangers57c28.07$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.0731650.6%160 W · 156 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x45d5…a7a0backed Chicago Cubs42c25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.582741.1%340 W · 487 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x973e…22ebbacked Texas Rangers57c24.56$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.5689950.6%455 W · 444 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83ce…835cbacked Texas Rangers59c19$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7950748.7%247 W · 260 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.