MLB · resolved market
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x603269f27da813a9c84c9f7649439932c4c1cc25b300f334c62ced2aaf225285
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Texas Rangersof Chicago Cubs, Texas Rangers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,738
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,143
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,738 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc807…c12bbacked Texas Rangers | 58c | 11,395$6,608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,787.23 | 505 | 53.5%270 W · 235 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 3,064$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,287.92 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7138…8c89backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 2,414$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,028.13 | 737 | 48.4%357 W · 380 L | -7.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,752$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.82 | 3,509 | 51%1,789 W · 1,720 L | +53.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Texas Rangers | 75c | 1,713$1,287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.07 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf26…6fe2backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 1,203$686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.32 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b7…d633backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,100$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462 | 67 | 46.3%31 W · 36 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…bb62backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 1,095$482 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.96 | 165 | 43%71 W · 94 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Chicago Cubs | 41c | 1,001$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.36 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 1,000$590 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410 | 710 | 44.5%316 W · 394 L | -23.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 1,000$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 802$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.18 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Chicago Cubs | 25c | 784.08$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.71 | 1,737 | 49.1%852 W · 885 L | +7.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 600$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 570$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.8 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 531.73$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.96 | 280 | 53.9%151 W · 129 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 530.27$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.51 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Texas Rangers | 56c | 403.04$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.34 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 390.82$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.14 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…8283backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 431 | 53.6%231 W · 200 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe649…4e37backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 569 | 46.9%267 W · 302 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 210.53$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.53 | 665 | 51.1%340 W · 325 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaac…ff10backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 200$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 63cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3e…5d6cbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 148.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.88 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Texas Rangers | 56c | 141.48$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f42…8680backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 131.58$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.58 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…91aabacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 113.84$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.09 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago Cubs | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…ec68backed Chicago Cubs | 44c | 97$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 721 | 54.2%391 W · 330 L | +20.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +144.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 93.22$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.22 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa188…62eabacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 90.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 252 | 48%121 W · 131 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b9…79e0backed Chicago Cubs | 41c | 83.8$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.36 | 550 | 52.4%288 W · 262 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 79.55$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa804…bdc1backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 79$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.18 | 84 | 46.4%39 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 78.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Texas Rangers | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.7 | 478 | 48.5%232 W · 246 L | -15.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Texas Rangers | 58c | 67.24$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.24 | 467 | 59.7%279 W · 188 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 60.58$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 49.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Chicago Cubs | 22c | 47.72$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x476b…0afabacked Chicago Cubs | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 57.9%33 W · 24 L | +5.2wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Chicago Cubs | 34c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0b…12ffbacked Chicago Cubs | 43c | 43.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 143 | 44.8%64 W · 79 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Chicago Cubs | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Texas Rangers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 330 | 51.8%171 W · 159 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 28.07$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.07 | 316 | 50.6%160 W · 156 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d5…a7a0backed Chicago Cubs | 42c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 827 | 41.1%340 W · 487 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Texas Rangers | 57c | 24.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 899 | 50.6%455 W · 444 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Texas Rangers | 59c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.