MLB · resolved market
Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf3eb304197cb1bb7691223c76bbe76afa12651a4cbc10b680e0987a93073a9f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $37,730
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $37,730 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 66 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 60c | 11,147$6,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,653.6 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 40c | 8,645$3,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,176.6 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc181…6e97backed Over | 48c | 4,833$2,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,320 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +5.1wins | +0.18per pick | 51cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 4,219$2,335 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,334.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 52c | 3,772$1,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,810.57 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 53c | 3,477$1,843 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,634.17 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Over | 47c | 3,131$1,472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,471.54 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 44c | 2,063$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,151.97 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 44c | 2,000$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,120 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd871…6bbabacked Over | 50c | 1,704$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.61 | 105 | 45.7%48 W · 57 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 50c | 1,651$826 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.65 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 49c | 1,050$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.5 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 53c | 1,038$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487.86 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 52c | 1,002$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$481 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 47c | 999.99$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 52c | 804.38$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$386.1 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 47c | 711.13$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.27 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb37…7d86backed Under | 47c | 638.22$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$338.25 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 53c | 537$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Over | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over | 48c | 520.83$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Under | 46c | 464.14$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.29 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Over | 51c | 358.65$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.91 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 51c | 335.76$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.4 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 205.51$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.9 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 47c | 197.49$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 53c | 195.62$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.94 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 192.24$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.64 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Under | 51c | 148.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.68 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 54c | 129.9$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.57 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Over | 48c | 125$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Under | 46c | 120.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.74 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d5…a8dabacked Over | 48c | 114.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 209 | 55.5%116 W · 93 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 100.16$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Over | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 736 | 53%390 W · 346 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf375…a60cbacked Over | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.7wins | -0.13per pick | 51cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Over | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Over | 52c | 61.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 40c | 60.56$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…5737backed Over | 50c | 59.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.7 | 99 | 51.5%51 W · 48 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Under | 51c | 59$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.91 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc78…f1f5backed Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 263 | 51.3%135 W · 128 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Over | 48c | 52.08$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 54c | 47.33$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 53c | 46.9$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Under | 60c | 40.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 51c | 40.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Over | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.8wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Under | 52c | 32.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Under | 47c | 32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Under | 43c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.23 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 51c | 29.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.69 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 49c | 29.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95fc…10f6backed Over | 48c | 27.67$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 55c | 26.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.08 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5c…fb95backed Over | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -5.9wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 49c | 25.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.1 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Over | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Under | 53c | 23.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.26 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 43c | 23.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Under | 49c | 23$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b8…d4b3backed Under | 63c | 20.63$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 76 | 55.3%42 W · 34 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 66c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- Chicago Cubs vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago Cubs vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Chicago Cubs vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.