Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Hoffenheim beat FCSB?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x603633f781c4eae8d69d1f433f396abc5218c7db9e8886fd9dfa19b748d57b4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,062
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,062 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 37c | 3,848$1,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,434.48 | 182 | 44%80 W · 102 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf2d…673fbacked Yes | 63c | 3,454$2,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,168.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 63c | 1,325$831 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$831.47 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb79…c2c6backed Yes | 61c | 1,000$610 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$610 | 78 | 62.8%49 W · 29 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 87 | 49.4%43 W · 44 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Yes | 61c | 879.76$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.71 | 535 | 64.7%346 W · 189 L | +29.1wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4109…7e24backed No | 37c | 531$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.48 | 109 | 53.2%58 W · 51 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…d9f9backed No | 37c | 531$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.48 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 37c | 492.86$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.5 | 91 | 45.1%41 W · 50 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90e…5794backed Yes | 63c | 476.19$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 54cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 50c | 359.41$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.12 | 41 | 73.2%30 W · 11 L | +5.9wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3d69…9829backed Yes | 63c | 300.02$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.26 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…c206backed Yes | 47c | 206.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.12 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 25cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe9…e00ebacked Yes | 62c | 177.42$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 67c | 150$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.08 | 127 | 37%47 W · 80 L | -6.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked No | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358e…b0ccbacked Yes | 62c | 95$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 41c | 80$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.2 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02cb…ae38backed Yes | 59c | 80$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.2 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99f9…004dbacked No | 39c | 64.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.1 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 206 | 55.3%114 W · 92 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa249…f2f3backed Yes | 56c | 41$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8239…ddd7backed Yes | 55c | 36.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 30 | 16.7%5 W · 25 L | -2.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87bf…374ebacked No | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 49 | 16.3%8 W · 41 L | -5.2wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf66d…f36fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd688…b771backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf479…0fe3backed Yes | 62c | 19.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f01…4ca2backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | +4.7wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hoffenheim beat FCSB?this page
- Will FCSB beat Hoffenheim?No won
- Will the match between TSG Hoffenheim and FCSB end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.