MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60604b425da1416b766d93d28fdb4305ad386d4eb2d13c6081f9f67ae4795dac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,222
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,028
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,222 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb45a…192cbacked Under | 45c | 20,132$9,060 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,072.87 | 411 | 49.1%202 W · 209 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 55c | 8,403$4,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,613.94 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 6,615$3,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,638.48 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x994b…c047backed Over | 55c | 2,329$1,281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,281.01 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Over | 55c | 1,869$1,028 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.95 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 55c | 1,780$979 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$979 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 1,400$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 60c | 918.9$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.69 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 38c | 809.29$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.4 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 30c | 717.05$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.64 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d5a…4289backed Over | 55c | 539.49$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.72 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86fb…03d4backed Under | 63c | 492.05$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.06 | 1,215 | 47.6%578 W · 637 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b39…57e8backed Under | 47c | 421.27$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.08 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc185…7020backed Over | 10c | 205.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 55c | 192.73$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Over | 55c | 187.58$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.17 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 54c | 160.38$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.61 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bab…36a2backed Over | 13c | 149.22$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 63c | 122.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 1,106 | 48.7%539 W · 567 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7dfbbacked Over | 33c | 103.03$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 330 | 32.7%108 W · 222 L | -22.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Under | 45c | 98.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.44 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dea…5e23backed Over | 54c | 93$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.27 | 425 | 50.1%213 W · 212 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Under | 46c | 83.5$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.09 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…9091backed Under | 58c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 639 | 43.3%277 W · 362 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e84…5c32backed Under | 46c | 67.35$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x348f…a206backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cb…a917backed Under | 47c | 31.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.75 | 207 | 51.2%106 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 71c | 27.96$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.11 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41d8…7233backed Under | 56c | 27.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +7.1wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1e…e503backed Over | 54c | 23.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb888…f103backed Over | 54c | 23.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.47 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3297…43cdbacked Over | 54c | 21.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5this page
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.