MLB · resolved market
Spread: Athletics (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa4222d401da8b52e92abcfec7fba86bddc463c73d6c7dd20f45b0bbddf15ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Angelsof Athletics, Los Angeles Angels
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,427
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,427 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 6,973$3,905 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,067.96 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics | 44c | 4,540$1,997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,997.4 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics | 42c | 3,061$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,285.67 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels | 62c | 2,781$1,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,065.68 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Angels | 60c | 2,641$1,582 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.17 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Los Angeles Angels | 47c | 2,386$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,254.44 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf93f…f94bbacked Athletics | 44c | 2,333$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,026.52 | 87 | 39.1%34 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae51…0d08backed Athletics | 36c | 1,379$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.49 | 364 | 40.1%146 W · 218 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Athletics | 50c | 1,371$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$690.19 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 32c | 885.43$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.06 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf32d…bbbbbacked Athletics | 67c | 742.32$496 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.88 | 122 | 48.4%59 W · 63 L | -5.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Los Angeles Angels | 71c | 527.78$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Athletics | 29c | 523.4$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 304 | 52%158 W · 146 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4b…556bbacked Athletics | 15c | 300$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 63 | 9.5%6 W · 57 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +44.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Athletics | 30c | 188.78$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.57 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x898a…499abacked Los Angeles Angels | 67c | 172.9$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.93 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Athletics | 36c | 136.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xccb7…0477backed Los Angeles Angels | 74c | 135.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.11 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5a…07b6backed Athletics | 47c | 106.38$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 45.2%28 W · 34 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e2…e307backed Athletics | 30c | 76.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Athletics | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Los Angeles Angels | 41c | 56.61$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Athletics | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Los Angeles Angels | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Los Angeles Angels | 56c | 39.3$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.29 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Athletics | 55c | 33.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 55 | 45.5%25 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Athletics | 33c | 29.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 446 | 48.7%217 W · 229 L | -10.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Athletics | 60c | 27.42$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…cbf2backed Athletics | 44c | 26.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 67 | 43.3%29 W · 38 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b31…b2a3backed Los Angeles Angels | 78c | 25.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 61 | 54.1%33 W · 28 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0444…55a5backed Los Angeles Angels | 73c | 24.36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9883…1d31backed Los Angeles Angels | 69c | 21.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c76…862dbacked Los Angeles Angels | 70c | 18.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 103 | 43.7%45 W · 58 L | -9.9wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsLos Angeles Angels won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 11.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 12.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 3.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 6.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 7.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 8.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-2.5)Los Angeles Angels won
- Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Los Angeles AngelsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.