TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Los Angeles Angels

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Los Angeles Angelsof Athletics, Los Angeles Angels
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$604,606
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$638,692

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $604,606 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 377 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Los Angeles Angels10c125,980$12,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113,843.7510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5234…4c4fbacked Los Angeles Angels51c113,441$57,771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55,670.744847.9%23 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Los Angeles Angels45c75,000$33,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,25028350.9%144 W · 139 L-0.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1136…0c2ebacked Athletics55c47,619$26,190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26,190.2113340.6%54 W · 79 L-14.4wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-21.5%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Athletics55c30,000$16,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,499.9977053.9%415 W · 355 L+8.1wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Athletics49c27,007$13,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,107.78,47052.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L+510.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+5.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked Los Angeles Angels37c24,982$9,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,716.272,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef1b…8697backed Athletics49c23,831$11,784 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,784.2614042.9%60 W · 80 L+0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa66d…6daabacked Los Angeles Angels28c22,504$6,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,203.521147.9%101 W · 110 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Los Angeles Angels46c15,904$7,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,588.111,66050.1%832 W · 828 L-22.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf00c…f4febacked Athletics50c14,118$7,050 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0502147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3dfb…abafbacked Athletics56c13,839$7,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,749.831,38549.5%685 W · 700 L-4.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Athletics51c11,979$6,119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,119.064,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Los Angeles Angels46c7,728$3,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,187.012,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Athletics45c6,560$2,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,951.86,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Athletics51c6,366$3,221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,221.1712,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c0a…a9bebacked Athletics51c6,000$3,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0607647.4%36 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce9f…26e8backed Athletics49c5,408$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,650.092347.8%11 W · 12 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Athletics56c5,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,8004645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Athletics54c4,630$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50037953.6%203 W · 176 L+18.4wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+11.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Los Angeles Angels48c4,250$2,043 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,206.541,10648.7%539 W · 567 L+0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Athletics63c4,065$2,545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,545.098,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x713d…1107backed Athletics1c4,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402673.1%19 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick65cpaid+9.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Los Angeles Angels47c3,325$1,565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,759.722,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Los Angeles Angels45c3,322$1,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,826.861,51551.1%774 W · 741 L+7.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Athletics55c3,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6502,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Athletics53c3,000$1,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,589.8977951.1%398 W · 381 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Athletics56c2,657$1,488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,488.091,91253%1,014 W · 898 L+42.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Los Angeles Angels42c2,418$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,413.895,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb4d2…ce99backed Athletics74c2,392$1,767 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,766.6275344.1%332 W · 421 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Los Angeles Angels46c2,346$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,266.735,40150.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L+17.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfecb…19babacked Los Angeles Angels52c2,274$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,089.5115650.6%79 W · 77 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics52c2,253$1,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,162.684,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Athletics54c2,093$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.031,72350.3%867 W · 856 L+55.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb57a…b8c3backed Athletics54c2,042$1,103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,102.681833.3%6 W · 12 L-3.1wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Los Angeles Angels48c1,925$932 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$992.712,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc31…971fbacked Athletics54c1,852$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00032850.3%165 W · 163 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Los Angeles Angels45c1,780$801 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9791,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1ba2…d212backed Los Angeles Angels45c1,633$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$898.2492046%423 W · 497 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Los Angeles Angels49c1,582$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$807.411,49958.9%883 W · 616 L+75.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Athletics45c1,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6752,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Athletics61c1,322$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Athletics54c1,276$686 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.334,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Los Angeles Angels49c1,258$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.478,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Athletics45c1,095$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.661,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2792…c4f6backed Athletics45c1,094$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.4573949.8%368 W · 371 L+0.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fea…8f74backed Athletics57c1,079$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$619.888046.4%408 W · 472 L-22.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Athletics55c1,030$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$566.2573748.4%357 W · 380 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3903…1db6backed Athletics1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101741.2%7 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x691d…599fbacked Los Angeles Angels46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Athletics55c999.99$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.9960350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd192…d266backed Los Angeles Angels46c999.97$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.98475%3 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.27per pick48cpaid+53.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Los Angeles Angels59c999.12$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$409.6417768.9%122 W · 55 L+9.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+5.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f36…2819backed Athletics50c991.11$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5002846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a26…937ebacked Athletics51c988.22$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50061351.5%316 W · 297 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a90…03b5backed Athletics51c909.06$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.62250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Athletics44c893.02$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.9315749.7%78 W · 79 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a59…a57ebacked Los Angeles Angels49c864$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$443.5267742.2%286 W · 391 L-36.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1f3b…9ed5backed Athletics45c766.47$345 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$344.916456.3%36 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Athletics53c759.05$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.291,83650.8%932 W · 904 L-3.9wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Athletics45c730$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$328.51,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f3d…c9d9backed Los Angeles Angels46c729.93$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$394.16450%2 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbd04…a64abacked Athletics55c727.27$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40032350.5%163 W · 160 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Athletics51c719.47$368 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.441,08356.3%610 W · 473 L+13.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Los Angeles Angels45c711.11$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.1179543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x29f2…876dbacked Athletics54c709.79$383 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.29250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bec…07a8backed Athletics55c699.98$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.9924946.2%115 W · 134 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbcda…ee95backed Athletics51c698$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf9c…3648backed Athletics45c656.6$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.471,73349%849 W · 884 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9d57…18ddbacked Athletics56c650.36$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.211947.1%56 W · 63 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Athletics55c600$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33085952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Athletics45c599.99$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2702,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f0b…5577backed Athletics54c586.43$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$316.6729449.7%146 W · 148 L-7.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Athletics55c579.99$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.991,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa535…9e5ebacked Athletics54c564$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304.5646749.5%231 W · 236 L-12.0wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-3.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Los Angeles Angels31c555$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.7570735.1%248 W · 459 L-31.7wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-21.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa6a7…e5d4backed Athletics63c543.35$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.7532857.9%190 W · 138 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df1…6583backed Athletics54c537.41$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.220%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Athletics56c517.88$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.011,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Athletics54c500$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Los Angeles Angels7c499.98$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$464.98650%3 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+253.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa77a…e6f9backed Athletics53c497.68$262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$262.279346.2%43 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Athletics51c494.12$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.8957548%276 W · 299 L-17.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c16…66cebacked Athletics45c484.61$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.0766056.2%371 W · 289 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b3…49f8backed Athletics56c476.79$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2675448.1%26 W · 28 L+5.4wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x2f2b…0f9abacked Athletics54c467.45$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.4250751.7%262 W · 245 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04ec…8ac9backed Los Angeles Angels44c447.96$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.8668846.8%322 W · 366 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd786…a8a1backed Athletics56c439.35$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.041838.9%7 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.17per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x898a…499abacked Athletics79c437.35$344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$343.854358.1%25 W · 18 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe89e…d4a7backed Athletics54c435.89$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.382157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96ca…5a71backed Los Angeles Angels47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.5325247.6%120 W · 132 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb7…95b2backed Athletics54c415.73$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.49757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Athletics54c400$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21625249.2%124 W · 128 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5530…d38dbacked Athletics51c399.75$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.482,20350.3%1,108 W · 1,095 L+29.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe903…c2d6backed Los Angeles Angels46c395.65$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.65366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Athletics45c392$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.41,11945.5%509 W · 610 L+16.9wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Athletics54c388.85$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.653,45351.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L+58.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee1…a27cbacked Athletics54c388$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.52250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa395…a298backed Los Angeles Angels47c387.29$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8e1…9bc1backed Athletics51c385.1$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.2536050.3%181 W · 179 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.