TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$58,337
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$75,822

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,337 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa37c…0020backed Yes0c10,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes2c4,000$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$841389.4%13 W · 125 L+10.4wins+0.08per pick2cpaid+357.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes6c3,296$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.24,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb901…9fc4backed No78c1,920$1,492 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$427.2411883.9%99 W · 19 L+34.3wins+0.29per pick55cpaid+63.4%equal weight77+0.24 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Yes5c1,080$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.132,21420.7%458 W · 1,756 L-60.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-25.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x726e…aafbbacked Yes51c839.03$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$424.0223269%160 W · 72 L+23.7wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+27.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed No28c588.84$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.322,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…ced4backed No36c459.9$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.8895852.5%503 W · 455 L+103.2wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+9.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes5c379.06$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.796219.8%61 W · 560 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid+3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4149…8147backed Yes24c367.93$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.58444%37 W · 47 L+7.6wins+0.09per pick35cpaid+15.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f0b…08b0backed No66c324.99$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.8475%3 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick74cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed No79c320.33$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.2749646%228 W · 268 L+16.9wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes21c316.51$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.5220341.9%85 W · 118 L+12.1wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4a2f…e889backed Yes65c310.05$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.7822849.6%113 W · 115 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes7c292.02$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.928,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes15c285.57$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.54,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes42c266.01$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.192,50145.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L+26.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x331d…8846backed Yes23c247.36$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.9428244%124 W · 158 L+38.6wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+29.2%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe712…9a10backed No25c214.87$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.6686847.7%414 W · 454 L+40.7wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes9c210.53$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.852,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes75c174.25$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.194050%20 W · 20 L-3.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x32d1…e5c8backed No7c157.68$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$146.894712.8%6 W · 41 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick9cpaid+56%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed Yes60c154.55$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.4761760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes25c144.57$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.626,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No57c144.06$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.281,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes19c141.32$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.281,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8817…cda8backed Yes22c135.09$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1524841.1%102 W · 146 L-13.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid+7.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes52c134.51$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.8886952.7%458 W · 411 L-3.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No67c133.3$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.894,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cd6…6fb8backed Yes80c125.16$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L-1.6wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbd1a…8572backed Yes70c115.03$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.012161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes24c104.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258650%43 W · 43 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes32c100.46$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.1541331%128 W · 285 L+15.8wins+0.04per pick27cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5e06…9754backed Yes23c99.75$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.513630.1%41 W · 95 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1a11…e55dbacked Yes44c89.47$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xffc5…67a5backed No38c86$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.468333.7%28 W · 55 L+4.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-7.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes20c84.85$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.129960.6%60 W · 39 L+16.0wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.3%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed No80c82.17$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.585,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes33c80.65$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.6419039.5%75 W · 115 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes52c76.38$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.7223540.9%96 W · 139 L+10.5wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+10.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No63c73.73$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.534,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0718…a164backed Yes26c72.31$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.981631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No73c72$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.545,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdab3…79b1backed Yes22c71.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.868347%39 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.08per pick39cpaid+1.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes32c65.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.762,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes64c65.66$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.3499961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes23c65.35$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152646.2%12 W · 14 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick38cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed Yes65c63.5$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5467158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5239…4134backed Yes51c61.32$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.578466.7%56 W · 28 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+36%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x35fc…ac54backed Yes32c56.16$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.9724751.8%128 W · 119 L+24.7wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1fcc…701bbacked No50c50.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.0243559.8%260 W · 175 L+20.7wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbd71…1281backed Yes32c44.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3753951.9%280 W · 259 L+54.4wins+0.10per pick42cpaid+23%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed No53c40.9$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.42,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes56c40.47$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.522,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No50c40.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.9712,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xf4df…e6cfbacked No68c39.3$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.613862.3%86 W · 52 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…8834backed No61c37.98$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.9812547.2%59 W · 66 L-5.7wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No42c35$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.464,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No62c31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.664,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes44c30$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1223463.7%149 W · 85 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf370…4f88backed Yes61c27.89$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9138860.1%233 W · 155 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No72c26.52$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.51,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No45c24.07$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.1712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes60c21.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.121964.8%142 W · 77 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-2.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x07f1…3b8ebacked Yes50c21.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5930%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2f64…9600backed Yes76c20.1$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.3610758.9%63 W · 44 L-2.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-11.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x64f8…eec6backed No78c19.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.292373.9%17 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick61cpaid+12.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x53c0…33a5backed Yes76c19.33$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.6822645.1%102 W · 124 L-12.2wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No66c15.72$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.4188973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked No80c12.81$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2.612,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.