Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60ac65533dc1cd19822d08ec4c3f10b1ceab4a98b137d59008fb70d03965c4f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,822
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa37c…0020backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 4,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 6c | 3,296$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.2 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb901…9fc4backed No | 78c | 1,920$1,492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.24 | 118 | 83.9%99 W · 19 L | +34.3wins | +0.29per pick | 55cpaid | +63.4%equal weight | 77+0.24 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,080$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.13 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked Yes | 51c | 839.03$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$424.02 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 28c | 588.84$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.32 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 36c | 459.9$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.88 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 5c | 379.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4149…8147backed Yes | 24c | 367.93$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.5 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +7.6wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0b…08b0backed No | 66c | 324.99$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.8 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 79c | 320.33$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.27 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 21c | 316.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 65c | 310.05$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.78 | 228 | 49.6%113 W · 115 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 7c | 292.02$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.92 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 15c | 285.57$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 266.01$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.19 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x331d…8846backed Yes | 23c | 247.36$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.94 | 282 | 44%124 W · 158 L | +38.6wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +29.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 25c | 214.87$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.66 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 9c | 210.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa7fb…182cbacked Yes | 75c | 174.25$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 40 | 50%20 W · 20 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 7c | 157.68$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.89 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 60c | 154.55$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.47 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 25c | 144.57$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.62 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 57c | 144.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.28 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 141.32$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.28 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 22c | 135.09$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 52c | 134.51$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.88 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 67c | 133.3$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.89 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…6fb8backed Yes | 80c | 125.16$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1a…8572backed Yes | 70c | 115.03$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.01 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 24c | 104.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 32c | 100.46$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e06…9754backed Yes | 23c | 99.75$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 136 | 30.1%41 W · 95 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a11…e55dbacked Yes | 44c | 89.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 38c | 86$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.46 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc9e…251fbacked Yes | 20c | 84.85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.12 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +16.0wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 80c | 82.17$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.58 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8e…cfaabacked Yes | 33c | 80.65$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 190 | 39.5%75 W · 115 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3f0…a4ccbacked Yes | 52c | 76.38$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 235 | 40.9%96 W · 139 L | +10.5wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 63c | 73.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0718…a164backed Yes | 26c | 72.31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 72$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.54 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdab3…79b1backed Yes | 22c | 71.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 32c | 65.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 64c | 65.66$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba1c…05cfbacked Yes | 23c | 65.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0729…5f54backed Yes | 65c | 63.5$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.54 | 671 | 58.6%393 W · 278 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5239…4134backed Yes | 51c | 61.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | +9.7wins | +0.11per pick | 55cpaid | +36%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 32c | 56.16$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1fcc…701bbacked No | 50c | 50.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.02 | 435 | 59.8%260 W · 175 L | +20.7wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 32c | 44.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 53c | 40.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.4 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 56c | 40.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.52 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 50c | 40.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 68c | 39.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 138 | 62.3%86 W · 52 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaee7…8834backed No | 61c | 37.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 125 | 47.2%59 W · 66 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 35$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.46 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf370…4f88backed Yes | 61c | 27.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 388 | 60.1%233 W · 155 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 72c | 26.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 24.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 60c | 21.72$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07f1…3b8ebacked Yes | 50c | 21.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f64…9600backed Yes | 76c | 20.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 107 | 58.9%63 W · 44 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed No | 78c | 19.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.29 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 76c | 19.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 66c | 15.72$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 80c | 12.81$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.61 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.