Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6b6290dfc57dd817f7aa3cd3ce40eb938e40cb058b78a8bf08d85203ea9908c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,238
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 23c | 605.64$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 21c | 465.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.85 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 425.5$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.43 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 3c | 350$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.91 | 1,331 | 20.8%277 W · 1,054 L | +33.9wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8746…f522backed Yes | 57c | 267.9$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.21 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ad3…e651backed Yes | 26c | 231.1$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 333 | 51.7%172 W · 161 L | -7.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 77c | 157.76$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.19 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 17c | 148.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.5 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.6 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 75c | 130$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 77c | 129.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.51 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 116.51$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 114$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.35 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 46c | 113.31$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 23c | 112.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.16 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 66c | 109.21$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.52 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53c0…33a5backed Yes | 77c | 100.76$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.63 | 226 | 45.1%102 W · 124 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 19c | 99.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.99 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 57c | 95.75$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.35 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 68c | 94.66$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.83 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82df…0f66backed Yes | 25c | 93.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.11 | 69 | 89.9%62 W · 7 L | +25.3wins | +0.37per pick | 53cpaid | +111%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 22c | 91.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.46 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 29c | 89.73$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed No | 68c | 88.27$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.46 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 86.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x276d…ea8fbacked Yes | 29c | 85.03$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.03 | 86 | 50%43 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 85$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.62 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.2 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 75$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 30c | 74.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.13 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 21c | 71.23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 21c | 71.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.21 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 75c | 68.87$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 64.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.27 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 60.2$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.7 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe37a…844dbacked No | 78c | 58.95$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.93 | 128 | 76.6%98 W · 30 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 61c | 57.62$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 51c | 57.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 72c | 51.48$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.07 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed Yes | 26c | 51.17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.76 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed Yes | 23c | 50.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.26 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 59c | 50.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 65c | 50$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…2305backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.99 | 72 | 13.9%10 W · 62 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 49.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.48 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 57c | 49$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.07 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 76c | 48.84$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed Yes | 32c | 46.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.66 | 83 | 33.7%28 W · 55 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 51c | 46.23$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.67 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…cda8backed Yes | 32c | 45.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 248 | 41.1%102 W · 146 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 35c | 42.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x847c…9ff8backed Yes | 59c | 42.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.51 | 225 | 50.2%113 W · 112 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 70c | 39.31$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.42 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 72c | 36.12$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.84 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 33c | 35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.45 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x726e…aafbbacked No | 77c | 35$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.1 | 232 | 69%160 W · 72 L | +23.7wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5824…7307backed Yes | 31c | 34.82$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.13 | 52 | 71.2%37 W · 15 L | +4.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x64f8…eec6backed No | 49c | 31.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.13per pick | 61cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 54c | 31.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 75c | 30.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 75c | 28.7$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 78c | 26.97$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.04 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 74c | 25.7$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 60c | 25.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd615…ae32backed Yes | 51c | 25.12$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.32 | 339 | 62.8%213 W · 126 L | +40.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 53c | 23.97$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 54c | 23.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x7efd…caedbacked Yes | 59c | 23.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 170 | 25.3%43 W · 127 L | -11.7wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 66c | 22.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 67c | 22.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x914e…8355backed No | 75c | 19.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 168 | 59.5%100 W · 68 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 15.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170b…4737backed No | 67c | 15.81$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 809 | 57.6%466 W · 343 L | -19.4wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…db44backed No | 79c | 14.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 171 | 65.5%112 W · 59 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 30°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.