TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on July 2?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,368
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,059

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,368 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa9ec…710abacked Yes6c499.98$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3013545.9%62 W · 73 L+6.3wins+0.05per pick41cpaid-0.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes43c489.74$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.315,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No56c425.6$237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.485,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1735…0319backed Yes8c407.78$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.21,48015.6%231 W · 1,249 L+26.5wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes12c330.78$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.232,30226.9%620 W · 1,682 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-21.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked No55c304.17$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.732,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No53c299.06$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.525,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No59c296$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.6912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf677…2efebacked Yes50c294.86$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.33537.1%13 W · 22 L-7.3wins-0.21per pick58cpaid-42.2%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes42c292.72$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.231936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes10c265.7$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.834,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed No51c252.23$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.798,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7735…4740backed Yes51c197.84$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10025933.6%87 W · 172 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0729…5f54backed No56c167.06$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.7767158.6%393 W · 278 L-8.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29f8…4d7bbacked No58c152.75$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.1618368.9%126 W · 57 L+25.2wins+0.14per pick55cpaid+31.3%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No77c152$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.835,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed Yes40c150.64$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.931,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes9c147.01$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8840525.2%102 W · 303 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes10c146.16$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.446,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcd15…b352backed Yes15c145.55$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.231,85718.7%347 W · 1,510 L+77.0wins+0.04per pick15cpaid+25.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes53c140$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.81,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed No48c117.55$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.1356543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes10c114.69$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.314,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed Yes44c114.25$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.243,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb7…df91backed Yes45c114.2$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.1294552.5%496 W · 449 L+27.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No65c111.57$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.971,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5425…4c65backed No59c108.74$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.4427852.9%147 W · 131 L+1.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda56…4176backed Yes42c100$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4212934.1%44 W · 85 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd654…2efebacked Yes45c90$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.540461.4%248 W · 156 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e06…9754backed No76c88.93$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.0613630.1%41 W · 95 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes30c85.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.7912,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1440…7712backed Yes36c80$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.89035.6%32 W · 58 L-0.4wins0.00per pick36cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8746…f522backed Yes61c78.58$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4811748.7%57 W · 60 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-17%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7db…959bbacked Yes30c75.64$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231,01825.5%260 W · 758 L-11.7wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-19.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed Yes43c75.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.463,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed No52c74.82$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7390555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe00a…330ebacked Yes41c73.17$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020750.2%104 W · 103 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No72c71.73$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.054,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb53…fde7backed No48c70.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.625954.1%140 W · 119 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No60c68.04$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.524,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3e96…b306backed Yes42c62.6$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2320144.8%90 W · 111 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d72…b6e0backed Yes41c59.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.48812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-67.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x463a…af96backed Yes50c58.13$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1312052.5%63 W · 57 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes43c55.67$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.91,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c55$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.22,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes39c54.9$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6430332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xebf0…2330backed No74c53.58$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0341051.7%212 W · 198 L+24.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No50c50$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4c8…0ed9backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206046.7%28 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf668…e47abacked Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2018131.5%57 W · 124 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98ad…5f89backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203655.6%20 W · 16 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick46cpaid+15.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes48c49.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9970148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No58c48.84$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.6553855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes49c48.52$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.922,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa33d…3ef2backed No57c43.86$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8645675.2%343 W · 113 L+27.6wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+13%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb8f…ac04backed No63c40$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.8540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-39.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x156b…5808backed Yes37c40$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.840535.6%144 W · 261 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes43c38.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8452828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8971…809dbacked No51c37$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.131,95946%901 W · 1,058 L-51.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes49c35$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171,05434.9%368 W · 686 L+11.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0428…7d12backed Yes43c34.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1530136.9%111 W · 190 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes41c34.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.283,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No64c31$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.164,52565.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L-134.0wins-0.03per pick69cpaid-4.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5647…de1dbacked Yes46c31$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2647935.3%169 W · 310 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-5.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd1a…8572backed No76c31$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.562161.9%13 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick64cpaid-8.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No54c31$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.262,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No58c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.63,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed Yes42c29.72$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.531,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes42c29.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.351,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes44c28.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5299961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ea…a131backed No58c27.41$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.6498565.1%641 W · 344 L-13.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf9a…72b2backed Yes40c26$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.43842.1%16 W · 22 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa6d3…118ebacked Yes44c26$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.4420842.8%89 W · 119 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4174…18fabacked No56c25.08$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.041,07961.2%660 W · 419 L-5.7wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No59c22.05$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.092,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No49c21.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.22,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No63c20.74$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.673,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No57c20$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.680560.6%488 W · 317 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.83,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd0eb…9b18backed No50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104273.8%31 W · 11 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac71…f74cbacked Yes53c19.98$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.498962.9%56 W · 33 L+1.4wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32b5…db37backed No58c17.79$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.4713751.8%71 W · 66 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.