Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60d61a8c118abcf801d278f5e74d8bd80140994fc389b60f50d6ff521e9de089
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,126 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed Yes | 2c | 1,850$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 1c | 1,575$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 4c | 785.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.11 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 12c | 579.3$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.65 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 13c | 527.03$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.1 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 8c | 500$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 477.13$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.4 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 4c | 475.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 13c | 405.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…62b6backed Yes | 15c | 390.49$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked Yes | 4c | 374.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 328.03$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.96 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…ec9cbacked Yes | 20c | 299.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 17c | 292$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.23 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…7440backed Yes | 8c | 287.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 15c | 285.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.97 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb30d…d6c4backed Yes | 22c | 283.38$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.61 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 28c | 274.99$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.22 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 75c | 273.63$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.06 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf97d…85ddbacked No | 77c | 260.76$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.76 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 64cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a2…4b66backed Yes | 15c | 243.27$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.55 | 72 | 25%18 W · 54 L | +4.4wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 8c | 235.06$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.83 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ea…468fbacked Yes | 12c | 235$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900a…bb70backed Yes | 15c | 229.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b28…5b76backed Yes | 14c | 225.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 134 | 16.4%22 W · 112 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…cdc1backed Yes | 10c | 209$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 105 | 62.9%66 W · 39 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 32c | 200$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.25 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec89…9796backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 16c | 193.66$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 78c | 185.64$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.35 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 8c | 154.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 10c | 136.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 23c | 131.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 15c | 125$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 9c | 120.93$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 12c | 108.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 10c | 104.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb2…83b5backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…8eb8backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.85 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b97…5119backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40e4…8171backed Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 11c | 99.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 20c | 80.55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.81 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f6a…f60cbacked Yes | 13c | 75.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 294 | 27.9%82 W · 212 L | +18.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb02…73c2backed Yes | 26c | 66.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed No | 77c | 64.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.94 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8b…b6aebacked Yes | 25c | 60.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbba2…e5b5backed No | 77c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.13 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31b2…2dcabacked No | 77c | 27.52$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfd…c417backed No | 79c | 22.87$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed No | 78c | 19.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…aa3dbacked No | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.