Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaaaa88668a02adf621daac23d8b95f58f1008bdbc56846d1cdbd37e9f91b4efe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $75,853
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $75,853 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1236…c968backed No | 0c | 2,352$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d87…f13cbacked Yes | 78c | 1,765$1,369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.78 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…36f4backed No | 21c | 1,595$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341.17 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf0…8af5backed No | 57c | 1,251$715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed No | 1c | 1,201$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked No | 3c | 1,068$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 9c | 930.47$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.58 | 346 | 18.8%65 W · 281 L | +15.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 11c | 888.7$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.7 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 56c | 678.59$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378.1 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 567.56$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.21 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 52c | 551.92$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.31 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 57c | 546.47$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.78 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 10c | 499.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 60c | 497.11$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59dc…1f4fbacked Yes | 57c | 422.13$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.13 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 46c | 400.2$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.31 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed No | 26c | 366.93$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 366.63$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.07 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c6…7888backed Yes | 49c | 322.78$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.33 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 70c | 300$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.01 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 50c | 293.33$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.66 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 26c | 292.99$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.29 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 50c | 259.15$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.41 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab77…da8bbacked Yes | 41c | 250$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.5 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 10c | 244.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 144 | 42.4%61 W · 83 L | -11.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 41c | 234.61$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.91 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 39c | 221.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.59 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 49c | 218.59$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.9 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…62b6backed Yes | 70c | 214.11$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.11 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 43c | 210.18$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.3 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 17c | 200.94$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 15c | 197.75$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dfe…b4f9backed No | 50c | 180$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 65 | 50.8%33 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 49c | 168.13$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.97 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 60c | 166.94$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.11 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5038…ae15backed Yes | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309c…09b5backed No | 16c | 144.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.47 | 288 | 39.9%115 W · 173 L | -13.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Yes | 46c | 130.61$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.61 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 49cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd7…7003backed Yes | 45c | 123.56$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.96 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b7…9f11backed No | 35c | 118.91$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -5.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes | 45c | 115.62$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.67 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c21…5cc1backed No | 29c | 115$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd661…2750backed Yes | 66c | 111.1$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 880 | 28.9%254 W · 626 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 45c | 110.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.99 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 107.92$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 27c | 107.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.54 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe719…2fecbacked No | 45c | 107$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.95 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 43cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0d46…b09bbacked Yes | 76c | 103.95$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.95 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 74c | 100$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.05 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fed…1a5cbacked Yes | 33c | 99.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b2…74b8backed No | 64c | 90.5$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.92 | 89 | 68.5%61 W · 28 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 41c | 90.02$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502c…7c03backed Yes | 69c | 90$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 39c | 82.59$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.3 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb616…0086backed Yes | 29c | 79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 164 | 34.1%56 W · 108 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2b…c3b4backed Yes | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 22c | 72.52$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 42c | 70.68$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.16 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 61c | 70.44$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.01 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 43c | 69.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…b247backed Yes | 71c | 64.12$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 69c | 58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.71 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92ae…10dbbacked Yes | 64c | 56.25$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4774…1809backed Yes | 75c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27fb…3f5ebacked No | 28c | 52.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 209 | 42.1%88 W · 121 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 69c | 52.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.26 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…6118backed Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 77c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 47c | 48.4$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.63 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcce7…6ac3backed No | 54c | 47.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Yes | 43c | 46.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8188…aa3dbacked No | 59c | 45.29$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 42c | 45.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…8eb8backed Yes | 43c | 45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -15%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea6…80b0backed Yes | 46c | 43.59$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +117.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d2a…9ee3backed Yes | 67c | 42.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 59c | 42.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96b5…1c9dbacked Yes | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5282…95dcbacked Yes | 72c | 42.16$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.8 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 75c | 40.84$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…821fbacked Yes | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.68 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 36c | 36.49$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 57c | 34.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…27b5backed No | 58c | 34.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 39c | 33.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79aa…2e5cbacked Yes | 77c | 33.54$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.86 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 43cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d3…3bf2backed Yes | 49c | 31.72$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x955a…ff6abacked No | 53c | 31.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb31e…6a43backed Yes | 79c | 31.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 55 | 38.2%21 W · 34 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 40c | 30.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 68c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5093…272cbacked Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 727 | 26.4%192 W · 535 L | +63.8wins | +0.09per pick | 18cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xda36…ff0fbacked Yes | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.