Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xde0a9fa2af6394266bf6bc41d8c9a95bc46575c9a24b43e97c83efe724c41f33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $38,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,737 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x625a…8410backed Yes | 2c | 7,150$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…29bfbacked Yes | 7c | 2,300$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 32cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 20c | 1,619$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.86 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffb…119dbacked Yes | 2c | 915.48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 430 | 21.9%94 W · 336 L | +22.0wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 6c | 836.53$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.22 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6275…4e76backed Yes | 3c | 698.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 33c | 672.74$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.56 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Yes | 8c | 535.91$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.19 | 307 | 22.1%68 W · 239 L | -14.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x300c…6a92backed Yes | 21c | 452.57$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.66 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -31%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 8c | 421.93$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 3c | 404.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 18c | 400$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.45 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3799…1c4abacked Yes | 25c | 399.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ab…c998backed Yes | 21c | 315.96$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.52 | 61 | 37.7%23 W · 38 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 28cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x58af…1250backed Yes | 7c | 279.16$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe63…2de4backed No | 80c | 266.34$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.34 | 115 | 46.1%53 W · 62 L | -5.4wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x084c…589ebacked Yes | 25c | 262.74$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.39 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec8a…94b3backed Yes | 7c | 242.61$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 232.29$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 27c | 207.73$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.84 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 73c | 206.31$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b4…ec9cbacked No | 73c | 201.78$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.48 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 28cpaid | -87.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 27c | 201.43$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.42 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 79c | 200$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 197.23$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab6…6099backed Yes | 21c | 176.47$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.76 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 26c | 170.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 77c | 160.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b8b…63c7backed Yes | 23c | 130.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.55 | 86 | 9.3%8 W · 78 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -41%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe22a…10ebbacked Yes | 20c | 123.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 115.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.61 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xab30…88dbbacked Yes | 25c | 113.69$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6de…6f5ebacked Yes | 27c | 113.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…92f7backed Yes | 12c | 109.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 21c | 109.07$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 25c | 104.74$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.19 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed29…3024backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 241 | 39.8%96 W · 145 L | +10.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a28…c2e1backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +2.7wins | +0.18per pick | 29cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd26…5b5cbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 115 | 33%38 W · 77 L | -7.4wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…b101backed Yes | 27c | 100$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe34d…41f0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 121 | 47.9%58 W · 63 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe44…af27backed Yes | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.21 | 174 | 33.9%59 W · 115 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb60…1938backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3fa…cdb2backed Yes | 29c | 90$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 88 | 34.1%30 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fba…4e75backed Yes | 22c | 89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 23c | 86.01$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 75c | 84$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.86 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 83.61$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…c055backed Yes | 26c | 81.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4124…41cdbacked Yes | 18c | 77.12$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2d…8452backed Yes | 32c | 76.97$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d4…0c26backed Yes | 28c | 71.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63eb…b247backed Yes | 21c | 70$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 26c | 69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe534…9037backed No | 75c | 65.69$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…df40backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 21c | 58.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 22c | 58$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbed…6221backed No | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30a4…92f9backed Yes | 24c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 66 | 30.3%20 W · 46 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…2317backed Yes | 22c | 48.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e84…d064backed No | 72c | 41.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.81 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed1…23ecbacked Yes | 30c | 41.03$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.37 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x54c1…623bbacked No | 69c | 40.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 66c | 39.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.41 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc188…2e16backed Yes | 26c | 39.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ddb…513dbacked No | 74c | 37.47$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.91 | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 77c | 32.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1573…a727backed No | 74c | 26.8$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e52…44e7backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…b108backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 344 | 57%196 W · 148 L | +8.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd79…5021backed No | 67c | 19.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c0…9279backed No | 67c | 16.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.58 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C on March 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 10°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 11°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 12°C on March 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C or higher on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 6°C on March 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 8°C on March 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.