Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60f745091bb30dc1dbac03c838e9edc81340cb9939bcdeed4a95d52b192e1f2e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,995
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,436
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,995 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x85df…fb48backed No | 3c | 1,159$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.82 | 542 | 34.9%189 W · 353 L | -30.1wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 79c | 727$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.77 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e1…c152backed Yes | 26c | 720.33$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.48 | 202 | 31.2%63 W · 139 L | +22.2wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 20c | 652.97$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.81 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 427.97$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.85 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 23c | 200$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 21c | 192.51$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.77 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 17c | 170$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.86 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 30c | 168.58$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 79c | 166.64$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.31 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 160.52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 32c | 160$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.16 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 71c | 140$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.42 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 58c | 135.97$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 20c | 135.37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.88 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 74c | 132.9$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.38 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 74c | 127.59$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 74c | 127.25$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.06 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 20c | 119.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 115.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.26 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 24c | 109.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.87 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 78c | 109.1$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.14 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ed…156fbacked No | 79c | 105$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.95 | 123 | 51.2%63 W · 60 L | -9.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2d60…d7dfbacked No | 57c | 103.16$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.34 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 30c | 101.11$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 74c | 100$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 22c | 91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.3 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c56…14ccbacked Yes | 26c | 91$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.11 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 25c | 87.27$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.86 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 25c | 79.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.29 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 78.18$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 22c | 77.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.4 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 23c | 77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 34c | 76.92$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.6 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 23c | 75.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.99 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a85…651fbacked No | 46c | 74.57$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.3 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…453fbacked Yes | 22c | 70$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.5 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed Yes | 29c | 63.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.15 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 18c | 62.72$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.14 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 80c | 55.19$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.15 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec0…a64abacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 188 | 62.8%118 W · 70 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec21…c83fbacked No | 76c | 52.42$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 71 | 66.2%47 W · 24 L | -8.2wins | -0.12per pick | 78cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 52c | 51$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55f8…2e76backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e3…6867backed No | 79c | 49.99$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 30c | 49.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.22 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 28c | 48.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.92 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 29c | 47.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 45$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.45 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 46c | 43.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58e6…9ac7backed No | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 197 | 53.8%106 W · 91 L | -12.7wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 33c | 40.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 46c | 40.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.88 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 71c | 40$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5683…4015backed No | 45c | 37.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4327…288fbacked No | 46c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.19per pick | 59cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…e002backed No | 56c | 31.58$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 50c | 31.41$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.82 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 30.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 74c | 29.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.71 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f2…adcabacked No | 71c | 28.17$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 75c | 26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 73c | 25.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd39…5f76backed No | 68c | 20.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 95 | 69.5%66 W · 29 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 60c | 18.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 66c | 16.97$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 79c | 12.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.