Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9811e1e97083ca929de656127981d35bf62e9d135846d2c976bd8785fd5bb49b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,365
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,093
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,365 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 33c | 217.29$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.67 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 39c | 182.24$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.66 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 163.86$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x420c…1f36backed Yes | 35c | 151.24$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 298 | 35.2%105 W · 193 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 68c | 132.9$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 62c | 119.99$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.6 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 31c | 114.85$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 73c | 114.46$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.4 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 106.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.18 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.3 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…1443backed No | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 33c | 98.23$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 95.1$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.21 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c8…f649backed Yes | 31c | 85.05$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.06 | 199 | 47.7%95 W · 104 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 82.43$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 23c | 81.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 39c | 79.89$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.06 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f9e…c96bbacked Yes | 23c | 75.13$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 413 | 31%128 W · 285 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 77c | 70$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 66c | 68.67$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.11 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked No | 67c | 59.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Yes | 38c | 51.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 78 | 46.2%36 W · 42 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272e…6e99backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 167 | 24.6%41 W · 126 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 33c | 49.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 32c | 49.09$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 66c | 48.83$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 77c | 47.99$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 25c | 46.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 36c | 41.17$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 32c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 29c | 39.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a7…5b77backed Yes | 40c | 38.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 76c | 38.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed No | 66c | 35.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2155…3428backed Yes | 33c | 33.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 188 | 45.2%85 W · 103 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 67c | 33.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec47…0c22backed Yes | 38c | 31.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 182 | 22%40 W · 142 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70d2…2861backed No | 61c | 30.06$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 60c | 29.97$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 71c | 29.49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 68c | 28.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 38c | 28.24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 39c | 26.71$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 68c | 25.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 79c | 25.31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 60c | 25.08$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.93 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…ce7dbacked No | 68c | 23.35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 65c | 21.02$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa012…2af7backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 60 | 61.7%37 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf85…f199backed No | 66c | 19.98$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 66c | 19.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94ae…d801backed No | 64c | 18.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.64 | 139 | 50.4%70 W · 69 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 72-73°F on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 68-69°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.