Tennis · resolved market
Swiss Indoors Basel: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Stan Wawrinka
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61b77a6462bdae4b4248f705ad4e7aa4bd9aebc0379653228fee29db1b9b091b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wawrinkaof Kecmanovic, Wawrinka
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $557,047
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $823,584
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $557,047 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7606…2836backed Wawrinka | 41c | 266,000$108,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157,006.42 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Kecmanovic | 59c | 213,187$125,882 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125,881.68 | 108 | 45.4%49 W · 59 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kecmanovic | 57c | 11,259$6,369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,369.13 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xade8…b0bdbacked Kecmanovic | 59c | 9,668$5,672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,671.95 | 158 | 32.3%51 W · 107 L | -13.6wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Kecmanovic | 47c | 6,022$2,820 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,819.81 | 652 | 42.8%279 W · 373 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfe…44b5backed Kecmanovic | 62c | 2,000$1,240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,240 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Kecmanovic | 33c | 1,769$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$585.49 | 1,852 | 44.5%825 W · 1,027 L | -20.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed9…7e09backed Kecmanovic | 55c | 1,689$926 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$925.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5836…27bdbacked Kecmanovic | 28c | 1,570$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.6 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…f76ebacked Kecmanovic | 62c | 1,500$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930 | 1,446 | 48.8%706 W · 740 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Kecmanovic | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.01 | 364 | 40.9%149 W · 215 L | -13.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Wawrinka | 39c | 1,000$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$610 | 227 | 37.4%85 W · 142 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Kecmanovic | 54c | 949.04$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.5 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…ff0ebacked Wawrinka | 36c | 695.79$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$445.79 | 591 | 51.6%305 W · 286 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Wawrinka | 75c | 675.35$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Wawrinka | 48c | 500$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260 | 669 | 49.6%332 W · 337 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Wawrinka | 52c | 439.43$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.47 | 1,655 | 50.1%829 W · 826 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Wawrinka | 61c | 432.41$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.14 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d6…d617backed Wawrinka | 65c | 420$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.8 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Kecmanovic | 64c | 390.63$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 434 | 48.4%210 W · 224 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Kecmanovic | 39c | 389.12$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.14 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Wawrinka | 71c | 334.54$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.54 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd08…0635backed Kecmanovic | 62c | 326$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.23 | 704 | 65.2%459 W · 245 L | +29.1wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x60cd…a1b6backed Kecmanovic | 31c | 324.96$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.32 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Kecmanovic | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf42a…8470backed Kecmanovic | 33c | 300$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 191 | 31.4%60 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf732…d078backed Wawrinka | 68c | 294.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.12 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Kecmanovic | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97c…aedbbacked Kecmanovic | 37c | 270.63$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.37per pick | 57cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Kecmanovic | 55c | 241.13$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.82 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe394…289cbacked Kecmanovic | 48c | 200$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.31 | 284 | 51.1%145 W · 139 L | +8.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c17…de2bbacked Wawrinka | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Wawrinka | 38c | 182.19$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.19 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca8…3e59backed Kecmanovic | 56c | 179.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…2d88backed Wawrinka | 61c | 158.17$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.62 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kecmanovic | 60c | 152.85$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.44 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44f8…2d91backed Wawrinka | 67c | 150.17$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.17 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Kecmanovic | 69c | 144.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 56.1%261 W · 204 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9622…a58dbacked Kecmanovic | 36c | 130$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Kecmanovic | 40c | 100.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…0220backed Wawrinka | 52c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.19 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ca…2c36backed Wawrinka | 55c | 81.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.63 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +60.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fd…5b3cbacked Kecmanovic | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53f9…e920backed Kecmanovic | 36c | 77.78$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf35b…ac24backed Wawrinka | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Wawrinka | 33c | 62.69$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,489 | 32.6%486 W · 1,003 L | +22.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b2b…5752backed Kecmanovic | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 214 | 54.7%117 W · 97 L | +13.1wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0974…003dbacked Wawrinka | 64c | 50.96$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa782…bdb3backed Kecmanovic | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1e…230abacked Kecmanovic | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 318 | 19.2%61 W · 257 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2f…04ccbacked Kecmanovic | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe944…0837backed Kecmanovic | 41c | 45$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Kecmanovic | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 125 | 60%75 W · 50 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7513…110dbacked Kecmanovic | 32c | 39.75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Wawrinka | 39c | 38.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.58 | 348 | 42.2%147 W · 201 L | +12.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa516…235cbacked Kecmanovic | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 175 | 35.4%62 W · 113 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcba6…bb05backed Kecmanovic | 31c | 34.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 106 | 51.9%55 W · 51 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78d…1d48backed Kecmanovic | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…7f83backed Wawrinka | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 49 | 73.5%36 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.10per pick | 63cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Wawrinka | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 202 | 57.4%116 W · 86 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd66c…97e3backed Kecmanovic | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e63…b2e1backed Kecmanovic | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.