MLB · resolved market
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61bcd38542d07a5d39db65d0e28bc371ac0258e4667ebd650ff70dcdf5e77a7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Milwaukee Brewersof Milwaukee Brewers, Colorado Rockies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Milwaukee Brewers | 29c | 1,498$433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,064.69 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Colorado Rockies | 70c | 709.16$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.38 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0273…1867backed Milwaukee Brewers | 37c | 533.43$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.43 | 293 | 44.7%131 W · 162 L | +13.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Milwaukee Brewers | 41c | 399.27$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.03 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 352.07$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.37 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 297.36$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.23 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Milwaukee Brewers | 36c | 270.21$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.63 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Milwaukee Brewers | 32c | 262.63$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.46 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked Colorado Rockies | 64c | 240$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.6 | 2,290 | 51%1,167 W · 1,123 L | +23.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Colorado Rockies | 63c | 229.35$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.56 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Colorado Rockies | 68c | 207.67$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.22 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…e5ebbacked Colorado Rockies | 27c | 195.85$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.88 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | -6.8wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Colorado Rockies | 23c | 187.79$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.04 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Colorado Rockies | 49c | 173.38$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.5 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Milwaukee Brewers | 33c | 148.7$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.63 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Milwaukee Brewers | 27c | 144.4$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.41 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Milwaukee Brewers | 26c | 129.9$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.76 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x348c…c8efbacked Colorado Rockies | 27c | 107.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.08 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Milwaukee Brewers | 15c | 76.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 447 | 45.6%204 W · 243 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Colorado Rockies | 65c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 466 | 59.7%278 W · 188 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Milwaukee Brewers | 35c | 60$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Colorado Rockies | 72c | 45.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.72 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5db9…190ebacked Colorado Rockies | 68c | 44.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.96 | 220 | 64.1%141 W · 79 L | +10.0wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Colorado Rockies | 75c | 33.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…66cebacked Colorado Rockies | 77c | 31.94$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.66 | 660 | 56.2%371 W · 289 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Colorado Rockies | 76c | 31.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.13 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe046…9bc6backed Colorado Rockies | 77c | 25.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 111 | 58.6%65 W · 46 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda54…b8a1backed Colorado Rockies | 73c | 16.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 284 | 56.7%161 W · 123 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1026…e794backed Colorado Rockies | 77c | 15.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 71 | 60.6%43 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e0e…704abacked Colorado Rockies | 77c | 15.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 77 | 58.4%45 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04ed…0adfbacked Colorado Rockies | 77c | 15.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 246 | 57.3%141 W · 105 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b95…5733backed Colorado Rockies | 71c | 15.41$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 210 | 55.2%116 W · 94 L | +8.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x165d…a4d5backed Colorado Rockies | 76c | 14.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 16 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-3.5)this page
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado RockiesMilwaukee Brewers won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 11.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 13.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 14.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 15.5Over won
- Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Colorado Rockies (-3.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-2.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-4.5)Milwaukee Brewers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado RockiesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.