Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61d6862f737486cd474d7bf7c5d755cb0b43e389bfe25e5c1a6a057fcde7f6e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,248
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,251
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,248 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 24c | 2,000$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.94 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Over | 5c | 1,236$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.61 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 77c | 605.21$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.2 | 213 | 55.4%118 W · 95 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Over | 24c | 505$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.25 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a41…1cbbbacked Over | 27c | 489.03$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.62 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 450.39$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 14c | 437.6$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 23c | 399.98$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 13c | 329.47$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 14c | 316.04$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.19 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe802…e465backed Over | 24c | 311.58$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.78 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -2.9wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Over | 11c | 300$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed Under | 77c | 279.07$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.52 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 73c | 188.24$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed Under | 76c | 177.57$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.71 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 13c | 175.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.81 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed Over | 14c | 101.61$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x811c…fd36backed Under | 78c | 101.21$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.27 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 25c | 95.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.88 | 116 | 35.3%41 W · 75 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 75c | 85.4$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.35 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 74c | 75$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed Under | 76c | 74.61$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b0…1846backed Under | 76c | 64.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.56 | 24 | 87.5%21 W · 3 L | +5.1wins | +0.21per pick | 66cpaid | +36%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 25c | 57.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 94 | 47.9%45 W · 49 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 25c | 57.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.33 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 22c | 52.69$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 205 | 45.9%94 W · 111 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 78c | 34.56$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 177 | 49.7%88 W · 89 L | -10.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b90…c258backed Under | 76c | 32.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 70cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed Under | 76c | 29.6$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 73 | 78.1%57 W · 16 L | +6.9wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd628…a698backed Under | 77c | 27.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 77c | 23.05$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 210 | 51.4%108 W · 102 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.