Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x232be29976e2364ec201485c47eeb3b7822da0a9e3b809128dfa35ea6cd5f32e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BV Borussia 09 Dortmundof TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, BV Borussia 09 Dortmund
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,212
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,212 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 26c | 2,068$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$536.74 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1548…c123backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 71c | 2,000$1,420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 76c | 1,593$1,219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.5 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe84a…702dbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 71c | 719.47$512 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 21c | 626.55$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.4 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d8…99aebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 77c | 593.41$457 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.48 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 21c | 591.19$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.85 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 77c | 465.94$359 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.17 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 25c | 410.62$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.98 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5140…9951backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 78c | 253.03$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.67 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 19c | 230$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…969bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 80c | 160$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 114 | 47.4%54 W · 60 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 80c | 151.91$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 22c | 140$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 157 | 47.1%74 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 78c | 137$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 80c | 130.55$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.11 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 22c | 129.23$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.43 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 23c | 124.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.92 | 288 | 22.6%65 W · 223 L | -11.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1df5…1e18backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 23c | 107.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +7.6wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3b…cea6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb5…2b6abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 23c | 83.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 264 | 33.3%88 W · 176 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a0e…c7a6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 26c | 79.2$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 78c | 71.05$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.63 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -3.6wins | -0.16per pick | 75cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6001…0457backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 20c | 68.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 77c | 58$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.34 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb27b…5d6ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 70c | 56.18$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.86 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 24c | 42.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 25cpaid | -58.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9702…5f49backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 78c | 25.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 80c | 21.66$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.33 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9eae…98a5backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund | 78c | 19.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.34 | 94 | 68.1%64 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)this page
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.