TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
BV Borussia 09 Dortmundof TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, BV Borussia 09 Dortmund
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$12,212
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$15,108

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,212 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x204f…5e14backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim26c2,068$537 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$536.743,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1548…c123backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund71c2,000$1,420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$580250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund76c1,593$1,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$374.575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe84a…702dbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund71c719.47$512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.49771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick59cpaid+14.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim21c626.55$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.41,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52d8…99aebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund77c593.41$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.485655.4%31 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick57cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim21c591.19$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.8543532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund77c465.94$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.1722245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim25c410.62$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.986921.7%15 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5140…9951backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund78c253.03$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.672365.2%15 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick63cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim19c230$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.581732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc7…969bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim20c200$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402425%6 W · 18 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund80c160$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3211447.4%54 W · 60 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9006…385abacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund80c151.91$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.383976.9%30 W · 9 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick65cpaid+15.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim22c140$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.815747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund78c137$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.71553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund80c130.55$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1133938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim22c129.23$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.431,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim23c124.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9228822.6%65 W · 223 L-11.1wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1df5…1e18backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim23c107.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.87657.9%44 W · 32 L+7.6wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdd3b…cea6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim25c99.99$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim23c83.89$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.0726433.3%88 W · 176 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0e…c7a6backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim26c79.2$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.59540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick28cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1608…eeb8backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund78c71.05$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.632259.1%13 W · 9 L-3.6wins-0.16per pick75cpaid-22.4%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund79c71$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.21,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim20c68.51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.933946.2%18 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-19.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund77c58$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.341,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb27b…5d6ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund70c56.18$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.86683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+50.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c39…442dbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim24c42.45$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104112.2%5 W · 36 L-5.4wins-0.13per pick25cpaid-58.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9702…5f49backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund78c25.3$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.573100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf16…b409backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund80c21.66$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.331450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9eae…98a5backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund78c19.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.349468.1%64 W · 30 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick71cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.