Bundesliga · resolved market
TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0331a588a786e88de95f5eba4abebea5b4db3d3e5786edefbc4e8111ee97cd76
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $70,056
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $85,692
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $70,056 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 76 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 21c | 10,625$2,249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,249.19 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 27c | 3,558$968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$967.62 | 481 | 41.8%201 W · 280 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe56…593abacked Under | 3c | 2,682$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +3.7wins | +0.14per pick | 13cpaid | +128%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 59c | 2,242$1,324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$918.56 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 1c | 2,100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 47 | 2.1%1 W · 46 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 13c | 2,089$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$274.36 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 20c | 2,007$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.91 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 74c | 2,000$1,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Under | 1c | 1,418$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c8…9cfbbacked Over | 73c | 1,002$732 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x417e…85e4backed Under | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 5cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09d4…5f81backed Over | 67c | 940.05$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.22 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 41c | 925.27$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.9 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc37…bac6backed Over | 71c | 884.34$628 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.46 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 77c | 806.93$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.64 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 13c | 740.35$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.29 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae4…bf8cbacked Over | 70c | 715$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 16c | 699.88$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 41c | 601.61$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.79 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef20…c46abacked Over | 76c | 591.36$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.7 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8b…e16abacked Over | 70c | 526.07$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.82 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 80c | 525.29$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.06 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x750b…609fbacked Under | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4c…39c0backed Under | 9c | 499.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 78c | 484.2$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.17 | 124 | 60.5%75 W · 49 L | +19.9wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 74c | 473$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.98 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f5…8314backed Under | 16c | 430.41$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.86 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -5.2wins | -0.24per pick | 55cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8584…6b7dbacked Under | 16c | 429.09$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.66 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 28c | 341.71$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.68 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Under | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 330 | 47.3%156 W · 174 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6eb…bc82backed Under | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe77…8166backed Over | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +44.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe811…ded3backed Under | 18c | 287.82$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.23 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 22c | 283.32$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…cf1fbacked Over | 74c | 260.73$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 78c | 255.09$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.12 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x016c…df21backed Over | 39c | 250$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.5 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 78c | 240.99$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.02 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7647…bcfbbacked Under | 45c | 229.48$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc72…ab9bbacked Under | 28c | 219.7$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Under | 11c | 217.42$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 45c | 216.29$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.61 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d8…dd09backed Over | 80c | 200$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ea…05b8backed Over | 74c | 184.91$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.08 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.27per pick | 71cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Under | 17c | 116.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.26 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 16c | 110.86$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.74 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Over | 76c | 108.88$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.49 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 67c | 100$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f2…7830backed Over | 67c | 99.98$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.99 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +49.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b3e…4d47backed Over | 72c | 98.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 69c | 98.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.42 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a7a…6c9abacked Under | 16c | 90.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a80…f05abacked Over | 63c | 89.1$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb71…288ebacked Under | 16c | 89.03$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 67c | 80$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505a…bb61backed Over | 67c | 73.15$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.14 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31d9…a1e4backed Under | 33c | 72.71$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e7…4697backed Under | 41c | 70.58$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 31c | 64.49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 57c | 63.75$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.52 | 206 | 45.6%94 W · 112 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd80…5ef4backed Over | 79c | 62.64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.28 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 52c | 59.86$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ca…117abacked Over | 68c | 57.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e3…b39ebacked Under | 56c | 50.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 71cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d20…f812backed Over | 38c | 45.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 207 | 53.6%111 W · 96 L | +22.3wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdc18…9b6ebacked Over | 55c | 42.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…1260backed Over | 78c | 39.47$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…0fb4backed Over | 77c | 31.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.32 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…42eebacked Over | 79c | 31.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.56 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x151b…a686backed Over | 60c | 21.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.61 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 80c | 19.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.87 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…a781backed Over | 72c | 16.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.63 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.18per pick | 70cpaid | +30%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 1.5this page
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)BV Borussia 09 Dortmund won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 2.5Over won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 3.5Under won
- TSG 1899 Hoffenheim vs. BV Borussia 09 Dortmund: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.