TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Spread: BV Borussia 09 Dortmund (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
TSG 1899 Hoffenheimof BV Borussia 09 Dortmund, TSG 1899 Hoffenheim
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$16,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$17,067

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,366 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc699…7961backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund19c6,561$1,241 inLost-$1,240.552931%9 W · 20 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund18c835.26$150 inLost-$150.3514447.9%69 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund19c699.3$133 inLost-$132.8743532.2%140 W · 295 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick33cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund11c472.99$52 inLost-$52.0322245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund17c299.98$51 inLost-$516921.7%15 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0cff…15d1backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund18c256.82$46 inLost-$46.231764.7%11 W · 6 L+3.6wins+0.21per pick44cpaid+60.2%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund15c230.05$34 inLost-$33.92,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund14c176.88$25 inLost-$24.7620845.7%95 W · 113 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-21.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund17c174.34$30 inLost-$30.464461.4%27 W · 17 L+5.5wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+15.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4740…fa66backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund18c158.47$29 inLost-$28.522030%6 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid+12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d6a…8bbcbacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund16c118.11$19 inLost-$18.92231.8%7 W · 15 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdf16…b409backed BV Borussia 09 Dortmund12c97.64$12 inLost-$11.721450%7 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked BV Borussia 09 Dortmund16c96.37$15 inLost-$15.4249143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.