Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x61e92a575f3100abe0fbd2d88df3c36f847e465971fa21a0b7e4676ffba15190
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,765
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,765 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 34c | 948.35$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.43 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 41c | 694.75$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.76 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb106…13f4backed No | 66c | 416.67$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.67 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.3$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 42c | 273.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.58 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 75c | 257.93$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.65 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 71c | 229.57$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.77 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 30c | 177.79$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.86 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32d1…e5c8backed No | 15c | 163.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 47 | 12.8%6 W · 41 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +56%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 13c | 162.9$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.71 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 67c | 146$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.82 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 11c | 139.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 133.66$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1225…e17fbacked Yes | 23c | 115.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.55 | 165 | 30.9%51 W · 114 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 61c | 112.03$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 28c | 111$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.18 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 28c | 104.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.75 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 10c | 103.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed Yes | 36c | 103.3$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.19 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 31c | 101.73$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 67c | 100$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34d5…a977backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.49 | 230 | 30.9%71 W · 159 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 69c | 97.65$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 29c | 92.25$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec6f…b34fbacked No | 71c | 80$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.1 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c70…020bbacked No | 25c | 79.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 63c | 70.26$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.26 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 23c | 66.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 63.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed No | 77c | 61.72$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.52 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 63c | 61$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.57 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 41c | 59.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 66c | 54.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 60c | 52$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2035…dc1cbacked Yes | 55c | 49.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.24 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc4…2db3backed No | 64c | 43.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb7bd…68b0backed Yes | 57c | 42.68$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.19 | 59 | 37.3%22 W · 37 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f9…8d24backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 477 | 38.8%185 W · 292 L | +18.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 53c | 38.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.79 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked Yes | 63c | 35.37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.11 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 35c | 34.86$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.66 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1822…022fbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.25 | 155 | 20.6%32 W · 123 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 59c | 30.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb407…6eb1backed Yes | 35c | 30.42$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58f…cec8backed Yes | 65c | 27.23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01e5…49a3backed Yes | 61c | 26.34$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 43c | 26.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 50c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 65c | 23.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.15 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked No | 69c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.64 | 259 | 47.1%122 W · 137 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6e2…06f4backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37b8…0a05backed Yes | 61c | 19.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 61c | 17.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35fc…ac54backed Yes | 75c | 14.9$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.69 | 247 | 51.8%128 W · 119 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked No | 73c | 13.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 30°C on August 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 28°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 29°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 31°C on August 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.