MLB · resolved market

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x622f68dbf690f2040f826c01e6a27635345ff65f680dd48e556935308714c9fe

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: May 4, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $35,740
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $33,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,740 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in MLB
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16bb…8492backed Under	55c	17,202$9,451 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,751.17	865	48.7%421 W · 444 L	-8.9wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Over	44c	10,526$4,651 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,650.98	2,293	48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L	-24.0wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Under	55c	4,040$2,222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,818	136	55.1%75 W · 61 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Over	45c	2,029$913 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$913.1	1,010	48.1%486 W · 524 L	-13.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over	45c	2,000$900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$900	5,401	50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L	+17.6wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over	45c	1,780$801 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$801	1,909	53.5%1,021 W · 888 L	+29.1wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over	46c	1,761$814 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.8	2,369	47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L	-11.6wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Under	53c	1,467$777 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$689.36	779	51.1%398 W · 381 L	+6.5wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under	34c	1,366$466 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$900.08	8,086	46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L	+29.9wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Over	45c	1,248$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.59	655	49.3%323 W · 332 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over	47c	1,069$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	891	53.5%477 W · 414 L	+24.2wins	+0.03per pick	51cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under	63c	862.59$543 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$319.72	12,247	46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L	-68.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f4e…1fb8backed Under	57c	664.9$377 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$288.23	3,792	45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L	-5.5wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76e4…febcbacked Over	47c	638.3$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	90	45.6%41 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd38…99d4backed Under	55c	600$330 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$270	267	59.2%158 W · 109 L	+17.0wins	+0.06per pick	53cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over	45c	599.62$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.83	2,407	48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L	-62.3wins	-0.03per pick	51cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Under	44c	485.37$214 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$271.52	11,357	52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L	+209.9wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9101…78ddbacked Under	74c	439.91$323 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$116.43	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	60cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over	45c	400$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	1,769	51.6%912 W · 857 L	+16.9wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a96…998dbacked Under	30c	363.33$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$254.33	55	40%22 W · 33 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd52c…6c59backed Over	46c	326.09$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	-11.7wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Over	51c	310.73$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.77	1,435	50%717 W · 718 L	-15.8wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over	45c	300.01$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	6,899	50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L	-7.1wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42ac…2096backed Over	40c	246.63$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.65	68	51.5%35 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over	44c	227.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2,243	57.6%1,293 W · 950 L	+37.1wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x81d7…32d8backed Over	46c	217.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	80	52.5%42 W · 38 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b97…6084backed Under	55c	200$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$90	591	50.3%297 W · 294 L	+9.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Over	46c	185.8$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.47	111	38.7%43 W · 68 L	-11.0wins	-0.10per pick	49cpaid	-20.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Over	45c	179.99$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.99	496	49.8%247 W · 249 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	+6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x09ee…90a4backed Over	46c	143$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.78	1,569	51.1%801 W · 768 L	+15.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Over	46c	130.43$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	481	50.7%244 W · 237 L	-19.3wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Under	59c	94.89$56 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$39.07	825	51.6%426 W · 399 L	+3.8wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4f7…b944backed Over	27c	94.47$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.23	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-34.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over	70c	85.17$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.62	10,846	51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L	+137.6wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc683…7483backed Over	36c	84.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	45cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Over	46c	76.09$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	486	51%248 W · 238 L	-18.0wins	-0.04per pick	55cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb97…7ae1backed Under	45c	74.4$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.02	85	34.1%29 W · 56 L	-6.4wins	-0.07per pick	42cpaid	-23%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Over	45c	70.65$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.79	1,001	48.3%483 W · 518 L	-15.3wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf58…2bf4backed Over	53c	70.42$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.02	401	48.1%193 W · 208 L	-4.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over	36c	69.7$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.09	5,127	54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L	+232.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Over	51c	61.76$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.65	6,116	55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L	+344.6wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7479…e171backed Under	72c	58.86$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.25	169	47.3%80 W · 89 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	-12.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Over	56c	58.55$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.79	2,995	50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L	-36.0wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under	53c	57$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26.79	722	47.6%344 W · 378 L	-12.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2baf…8023backed Under	54c	55.76$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.65	85	50.6%43 W · 42 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc78…f1f5backed Over	46c	54.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	263	51.3%135 W · 128 L	-7.7wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb07e…0df5backed Under	37c	54$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.02	997	44.1%440 W · 557 L	-38.0wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under	37c	51.82$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.73	1,522	34.7%528 W · 994 L	+27.1wins	+0.02per pick	33cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Over	45c	50$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	559	53.1%297 W · 262 L	+10.5wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Over	46c	48.86$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.48	6,303	48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L	+181.4wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Under	69c	46.73$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.49	524	49%257 W · 267 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb3ff…ec82backed Under	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	215	54.9%118 W · 97 L	+8.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	+7.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc96b…438abacked Over	46c	43.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	274	52.6%144 W · 130 L	-4.2wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Under	53c	40$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	4,035	57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L	+72.2wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbca0…9705backed Over	55c	37.2$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.46	8,470	52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L	+510.0wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3704…5487backed Over	46c	36.65$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	153	49.7%76 W · 77 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over	46c	32.61$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	143	58.7%84 W · 59 L	+7.7wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over	55c	32.2$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.71	5,234	56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L	+130.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x26e4…56ecbacked Over	36c	29.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.55	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0bbd…98f2backed Over	46c	26$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.96	187	51.3%96 W · 91 L	+9.9wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x832d…0997backed Under	55c	25.45$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.45	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2bcf…c678backed Over	45c	25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	246	54.9%135 W · 111 L	+3.2wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde6b…7178backed Over	47c	23.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5012…4d3ebacked Under	69c	19.43$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.93	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	53cpaid	-25%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed Over	68c	19.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	37	64.9%24 W · 13 L	+1.8wins	+0.05per pick	60cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf574…de82backed Under	54c	19$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.69	40	50%20 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb684…343cbacked Under	54c	18.52$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.52	143	53.1%76 W · 67 L	-4.7wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over	65c	18$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	393	44.3%174 W · 219 L	-22.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5this page
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-3.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5)Tampa Bay Rays won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 10.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 6.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Under won
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 9.5Under won
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay RaysYes won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event