Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x624f7b4f92944751b3070cf8e04768d816a2400fe7ee04ec6c609f63ed2f61b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,549
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,909
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,549 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed No | 48c | 425.69$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.44 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 67c | 313.05$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.81 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 228.44$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.7 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 50c | 169.76$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.37 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 67c | 165.74$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.78 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed5b…a76abacked No | 40c | 161.45$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.31 | 190 | 47.4%90 W · 100 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 56c | 137.16$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.54 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5245…00c4backed Yes | 57c | 121.44$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.74 | 296 | 40.5%120 W · 176 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 118.01$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 54c | 113.06$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.46 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 48c | 103.1$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.61 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d14…ee01backed Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -28%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea74…2fadbacked Yes | 76c | 99.76$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 120 | 68.3%82 W · 38 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 51c | 98.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.56 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23d8…f6b9backed No | 35c | 98.15$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 251 | 75.7%190 W · 61 L | +24.7wins | +0.10per pick | 66cpaid | +14%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 55c | 95.5$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.97 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 47c | 89.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.92 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…52f0backed Yes | 57c | 87.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.06 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…6008backed Yes | 49c | 84.22$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.35 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 49c | 81.19$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.61 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 61c | 70.15$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.65 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 51c | 62.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca71…610bbacked Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.95 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +13.2wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed No | 52c | 55.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 34c | 54.91$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.26 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 31c | 50.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 60c | 49.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.72 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…9ec0backed Yes | 36c | 47.71$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.64 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 32c | 42.88$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.09 | 497 | 50.3%250 W · 247 L | +20.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 53c | 42.55$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.55 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 58c | 41.37$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.42 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed Yes | 47c | 40.3$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.36 | 868 | 47.7%414 W · 454 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x105c…1011backed No | 42c | 38.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 112 | 20.5%23 W · 89 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcd…78dbbacked Yes | 53c | 35.97$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x686f…14cebacked No | 40c | 35.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 58c | 33.94$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3808…8b90backed Yes | 60c | 33.21$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.37 | 85 | 63.5%54 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4850…ab3bbacked No | 62c | 31.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x917f…de46backed Yes | 49c | 31$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b4f…8fbcbacked No | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 214 | 40.2%86 W · 128 L | +12.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 66c | 29.53$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked Yes | 54c | 29.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.55 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 74c | 28.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9928…bfa0backed Yes | 41c | 27.52$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.31 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 72cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…42a6backed Yes | 56c | 25.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffd…e7c6backed No | 48c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 516 | 31.6%163 W · 353 L | -29.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x27a3…ba31backed No | 60c | 24.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 72cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x318b…d827backed No | 51c | 23.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 71c | 21.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d89…b502backed No | 69c | 20.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a3…9a53backed Yes | 50c | 20.9$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 67c | 19.33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.48 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd979…4a18backed Yes | 60c | 19.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 49cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa11e…1b2dbacked No | 53c | 19$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x476d…ceecbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 186 | 15.6%29 W · 157 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 17.69$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 78°F or higher on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.