South American Leagues · resolved market
CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6267aae2268b300d16b30692c4053ec7a7d6bad7f88c854d1f3ffce6ccdf5472
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,421
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,632
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,421 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 41c | 5,628$2,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,331.2 | 143 | 30.8%44 W · 99 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Under | 41c | 3,926$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,317.12 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 55c | 2,898$1,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,310.26 | 1,290 | 42.8%552 W · 738 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 54c | 1,298$702 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$702.1 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 59c | 1,200$708 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$708 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 58c | 913.5$530 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.67 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f37…281bbacked Over | 39c | 897.44$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 116 | 18.1%21 W · 95 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 59c | 872.74$517 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$355.69 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27f7…44b0backed Under | 59c | 796$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.36 | 429 | 62.2%267 W · 162 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 61c | 677.33$415 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.45 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 59c | 607.61$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$247.53 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc29…383bbacked Under | 56c | 600$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +5.1wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +63.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xfb13…5946backed Under | 58c | 600$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252 | 240 | 53.8%129 W · 111 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…ea53backed Under | 58c | 516.24$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.82 | 248 | 55.2%137 W · 111 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 434.75$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.36 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f21…3d6ebacked Over | 52c | 419.04$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.9 | 40 | 22.5%9 W · 31 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce4…da39backed Over | 44c | 300$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…d743backed Over | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 61 | 19.7%12 W · 49 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 42c | 238.59$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 1,439 | 37.5%540 W · 899 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca89…7bc4backed Under | 58c | 216.78$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.05 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 38c | 200$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76 | 68 | 23.5%16 W · 52 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x47c7…cac7backed Under | 58c | 196$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.32 | 224 | 57.1%128 W · 96 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 59c | 186.59$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.62 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Under | 60c | 167$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 507 | 46.7%237 W · 270 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 50c | 150$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e0…041bbacked Under | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 216 | 57.9%125 W · 91 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under | 58c | 140$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 203 | 60.6%123 W · 80 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 58c | 137.76$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 278 | 55.4%154 W · 124 L | +5.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 59c | 116.98$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 1,302 | 50.2%653 W · 649 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x030d…8e95backed Over | 59c | 105.56$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.28 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0529…da98backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938c…e3dbbacked Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x39fd…3914backed Over | 42c | 69.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.39 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 59c | 67.4$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.77 | 313 | 55.6%174 W · 139 L | +24.8wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 60c | 62.6$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 336 | 58.3%196 W · 140 L | +32.4wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6f81…2bb7backed Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 242 | 57%138 W · 104 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd59…2e2fbacked Under | 58c | 60$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 189 | 59.3%112 W · 77 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4ee…e425backed Over | 40c | 57.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +16%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5981…3934backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed Over | 59c | 42.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0045…9007backed Over | 40c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa494…4a1fbacked Under | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 153 | 59.5%91 W · 62 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x195d…2decbacked Over | 34c | 35.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.19per pick | 44cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 60c | 33.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.97 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e30…02a0backed Under | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…7891backed Under | 65c | 25.26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 69c | 14.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 308 | 58.4%180 W · 128 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 2.5this page
- CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 1.5Under won
- CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 3.5Under won
- CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.