Mls · resolved market
Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-02-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x626a5d98ab796aa871a4368b685d07e1484b3e79f22731e807440b3ae26e6a67
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $37,456
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 50 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 74c | 18,021$13,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,652.59 | 777 | 51.7%402 W · 375 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 30c | 8,227$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,462.67 | 477 | 48.2%230 W · 247 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 38c | 4,565$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.05 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1341…0853backed Yes | 31c | 3,257$1,010 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,247.52 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 69c | 2,653$1,829 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,829.23 | 215 | 47.9%103 W · 112 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x274f…fbf4backed No | 69c | 2,500$1,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 34c | 970$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.89 | 395 | 67.1%265 W · 130 L | +60.8wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +45.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 71c | 885.27$626 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$625.94 | 803 | 58%466 W · 337 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 17c | 748.15$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.19 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed No | 18c | 714$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 27c | 706.23$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.23 | 451 | 40.4%182 W · 269 L | -18.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 20c | 535.5$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.65 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 39c | 450.46$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.43 | 263 | 45.2%119 W · 144 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 51c | 435.54$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.37 | 580 | 43.6%253 W · 327 L | -12.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 70c | 428.57$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 47c | 408$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215.81 | 189 | 67.2%127 W · 62 L | +21.1wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 13c | 400$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 483 | 44.9%217 W · 266 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 30c | 341.09$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$238.06 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 37c | 311.77$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.1 | 549 | 49%269 W · 280 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 17c | 281.52$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed No | 44c | 274.53$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 256 | 52.3%134 W · 122 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x587b…2622backed Yes | 31c | 265.66$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.53 | 293 | 70.3%206 W · 87 L | +41.2wins | +0.14per pick | 56cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8e52…2320backed Yes | 62c | 250$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.92 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 31c | 150$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed No | 70c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 429 | 47.1%202 W · 227 L | -6.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…67f5backed Yes | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 57cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…9875backed No | 38c | 118.76$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.57 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.9wins | -0.13per pick | 27cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd094…271bbacked Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.38 | 56 | 26.8%15 W · 41 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 48c | 105.49$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.45 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 18c | 101.96$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 871 | 54.6%476 W · 395 L | +34.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | -6.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed No | 43c | 99.83$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.58 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7253…0558backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.69per pick | 31cpaid | +222.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked No | 58c | 87$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed No | 17c | 85.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 249 | 20.9%52 W · 197 L | -19.4wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 85.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.03 | 376 | 49.7%187 W · 189 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9686…4303backed Yes | 60c | 77.29$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.76 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked No | 44c | 70$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 32c | 60.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 39c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 56cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 49c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.59 | 215 | 45.1%97 W · 118 L | -20.4wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 38c | 55.87$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 198 | 47.5%94 W · 104 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Yes | 30c | 54$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc210…8b21backed No | 71c | 36.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c34…2d7dbacked Yes | 31c | 32.55$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 44c | 27.38$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.28 | 85 | 60%51 W · 34 L | +9.1wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe4d8…19c5backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 61c | 19.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 263 | 46.8%123 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc989…ad9fbacked No | 71c | 17.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22cc…8aeabacked No | 71c | 15.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will D.C. United SC win on 2026-02-21?this page
- Will D.C. United SC vs. Philadelphia Union end in a draw?No won
- Will Philadelphia Union win on 2026-02-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.