Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
New Hampshire Wildcats vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 144.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6298c7cc0d54cf34622aab4cd3deeb70e2a935f03d7c930e97473eeb33038c52
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $763,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $758,803
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $763,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Over | 50c | 648,905$324,451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$324,454.11 | 359 | 45.1%162 W · 197 L | -24.4wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x006c…16eabacked Under | 50c | 500,000$250,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250,000 | 96 | 52.1%50 W · 46 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Under | 50c | 209,099$104,550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104,549.5 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108d…b85dbacked Over | 50c | 108,096$53,936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54,160.41 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -4.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a65…15b1backed Under | 50c | 15,000$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 13,000$6,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,500 | 906 | 45.4%411 W · 495 L | +9.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 50c | 7,355$3,677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,677.31 | 136 | 49.3%67 W · 69 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49d1…2a44backed Under | 51c | 6,000$3,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,060 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15f9…607ebacked Under | 52c | 2,070$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.4 | 321 | 46.7%150 W · 171 L | -10.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c16…09cbbacked Under | 50c | 1,213$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$606.51 | 90 | 50%45 W · 45 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…77dcbacked Under | 55c | 1,098$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 26 | 53.8%14 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…393abacked Under | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 393.34$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.54 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 51c | 325.57$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.1 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Over | 48c | 249.99$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.99 | 401 | 47.6%191 W · 210 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ec8…397bbacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d48…48e0backed Under | 51c | 188.63$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.2 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628e…1d80backed Under | 53c | 150.88$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.28 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -4.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 13c | 145$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Under | 50c | 125$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Under | 51c | 93.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.83 | 186 | 46.2%86 W · 100 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5590backed Under | 51c | 87.37$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.56 | 158 | 44.3%70 W · 88 L | -6.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Over | 44c | 65.87$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 497 | 46.5%231 W · 266 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…7db6backed Under | 53c | 37.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x586d…c5dcbacked Over | 49c | 33.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +62.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x75ee…7473backed Under | 55c | 30.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 279 | 55.2%154 W · 125 L | +22.0wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaab3…35f3backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ae4…7c46backed Under | 51c | 19.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New Hampshire Wildcats vs. UMBC Retrievers: O/U 144.5this page
- New Hampshire Wildcats vs. UMBC RetrieversUMBC Retrievers won
- Spread: UMBC Retrievers (-6.5)New Hampshire Wildcats won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.