MLB · resolved market
Baltimore Orioles vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62ad901e38bc22b74f0084606700a933db7c0579cdfd7d82e8523729f23c04a4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Baltimore Orioles, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,673
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,673 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 78c | 2,016$1,572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$443.97 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 1,752$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.17 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…1d79backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 1,507$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.22 | 262 | 45.8%120 W · 142 L | -17.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe278…b608backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 999.89$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$521.19 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Baltimore Orioles | 46c | 661.29$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$303.84 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Baltimore Orioles | 23c | 564.76$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.89 | 851 | 35.8%305 W · 546 L | -23.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 532$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.96 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c47…1189backed Baltimore Orioles | 79c | 483.54$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.20per pick | 40cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 24c | 441.89$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.66 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 47c | 438$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.14 | 205 | 48.3%99 W · 106 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 405.02$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.65 | 408 | 46.1%188 W · 220 L | -10.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6027…4320backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 45c | 386.6$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.63 | 840 | 49.4%415 W · 425 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 303$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.62 | 1,352 | 50.8%687 W · 665 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 300$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b66…336abacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 250.91$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 116 | 52.6%61 W · 55 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 243$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.22 | 1,521 | 48.6%739 W · 782 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Baltimore Orioles | 30c | 203.68$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.8 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 111.61$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.64 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Baltimore Orioles | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 126 | 51.6%65 W · 61 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 100$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27f3…8382backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 68.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.92 | 509 | 49.5%252 W · 257 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Baltimore Orioles | 26c | 57.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -40.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 54.78$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.49 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf878…825fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 52$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 44c | 52$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.29 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…d6c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 49c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Baltimore Orioles | 75c | 49.2$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.11 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8353…01a8backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 62c | 45.81$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.21 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe824…65b4backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 44.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -23.5wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 41.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c15…45a0backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -10.7wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 45c | 33.03$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.78 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 53c | 32.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.42 | 430 | 43%185 W · 245 L | -13.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb76…7ffebacked Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 29.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.65 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4729…8cfdbacked Baltimore Orioles | 41c | 27.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Baltimore Orioles | 78c | 26.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Baltimore Orioles | 52c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 310 | 38.4%119 W · 191 L | +9.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b8…ecfbbacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ef1…5acabacked Baltimore Orioles | 55c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 81 | 54.3%44 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04d6…5a92backed Baltimore Orioles | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.