Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will FK Mornar Bar win on 2026-07-16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62b9e94c336fc79ab3dcab8650bb96a3007adcd48ec63754c61907a303c2e012
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,845
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,314
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,845 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 11c | 1,370$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.84 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Yes | 73c | 1,093$796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$796.34 | 558 | 45%251 W · 307 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef84…6872backed No | 3c | 927.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$899.92 | 17 | 5.9%1 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 61c | 758.19$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.11 | 969 | 47.5%460 W · 509 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed No | 35c | 757.2$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.05 | 2,478 | 33.9%840 W · 1,638 L | -95.6wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaef0…b68abacked Yes | 64c | 511.64$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.23 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.0wins | -0.41per pick | 61cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 36c | 351.68$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.98 | 1,316 | 50.8%668 W · 648 L | +33.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1a7…ace4backed No | 74c | 310.59$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.2 | 170 | 59.4%101 W · 69 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 15c | 305$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.66 | 451 | 35.9%162 W · 289 L | -19.7wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 15c | 291$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.65 | 797 | 32.2%257 W · 540 L | -16.1wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 38c | 233.91$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.98 | 778 | 55%428 W · 350 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4836…859bbacked Yes | 62c | 226.84$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.61 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked No | 37c | 224$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.12 | 218 | 40.4%88 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e56…d55ebacked Yes | 43c | 219.38$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.58 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -7.3wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…931abacked Yes | 66c | 208.53$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.4 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162c…6c47backed Yes | 62c | 157.88$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.89 | 101 | 57.4%58 W · 43 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd93…56c0backed No | 65c | 152.06$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.7 | 116 | 74.1%86 W · 30 L | +18.9wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 380 | 47.4%180 W · 200 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb986…0023backed Yes | 66c | 124.32$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 36c | 123$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.72 | 880 | 48.2%424 W · 456 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Yes | 22c | 109.08$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.97 | 142 | 41.5%59 W · 83 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Yes | 64c | 104.66$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 978 | 46.2%452 W · 526 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa7…eccfbacked No | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.75 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +4.1wins | +0.23per pick | 38cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Yes | 31c | 90.06$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 192 | 50.5%97 W · 95 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 35c | 83.56$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 1,573 | 55.7%876 W · 697 L | +25.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed No | 71c | 80.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.52 | 60 | 73.3%44 W · 16 L | +9.6wins | +0.16per pick | 57cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3404…10d2backed Yes | 63c | 76.87$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked No | 38c | 76.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 93 | 40.9%38 W · 55 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3453…8524backed No | 38c | 76.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.33 | 111 | 41.4%46 W · 65 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Yes | 62c | 69.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.14 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Yes | 62c | 69.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 555 | 45.8%254 W · 301 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 35c | 57.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.31 | 795 | 54.1%430 W · 365 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 63c | 56.1$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.22 | 658 | 35.6%234 W · 424 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed No | 37c | 45.8$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.85 | 237 | 53.2%126 W · 111 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Yes | 61c | 41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.01 | 184 | 49.5%91 W · 93 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0464…67dabacked No | 37c | 40.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.65 | 363 | 56.5%205 W · 158 L | +17.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked Yes | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x648d…0ebdbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc95d…d369backed No | 39c | 31.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.3 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +5.7wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e7c…164dbacked No | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.04 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.18per pick | 44cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe761…8a64backed Yes | 67c | 29.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 64c | 28.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.45 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Yes | 65c | 28.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 155 | 62.6%97 W · 58 L | +22.9wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 63c | 27.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 1,117 | 35.8%400 W · 717 L | -13.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b78…473dbacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +12.8wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6f…6c9bbacked Yes | 64c | 24.78$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 65c | 23.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Yes | 64c | 17.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FK Mornar Bar win on 2026-07-16?this page
- Will Atlétic Club d'Escaldes win on 2026-07-16?Yes won
- Will FK Mornar Bar vs. Atlétic Club d'Escaldes end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.