NBA · resolved market
Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62d96d92ded6a0228951fd2464ba875017561edd549b2c1886a81383b423ca3b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nuggetsof Nuggets, Suns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,931
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,036
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,931 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Suns | 52c | 7,443$3,870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,870.11 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…8f58backed Nuggets | 48c | 7,265$3,487 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,778.01 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7da6…4ff3backed Nuggets | 47c | 2,120$996 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.6 | 228 | 45.2%103 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Nuggets | 47c | 1,860$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$985.29 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Suns | 53c | 1,824$967 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$966.76 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8058…d023backed Suns | 53c | 1,741$923 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$922.73 | 79 | 46.8%37 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57bc…d82dbacked Suns | 53c | 480$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$254.4 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Nuggets | 48c | 465.35$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.14 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Suns | 53c | 384$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$203.52 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Suns | 52c | 209$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 163 | 61.3%100 W · 63 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…37e8backed Nuggets | 48c | 164.22$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.39 | 168 | 37.5%63 W · 105 L | -20.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -25%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Nuggets | 48c | 135$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 1,109 | 41.8%464 W · 645 L | -20.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 46c | 110.37$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbed1…331bbacked Nuggets | 48c | 105.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa072…9e34backed Suns | 54c | 74.57$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 84 | 50%42 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…35d1backed Suns | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Nuggets | 51c | 63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Nuggets | 46c | 54.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.69 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Suns | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Suns | 52c | 47.35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.45 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Suns | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Nuggets (-13.5)this page
- Spread: Nuggets (-12.5)Nuggets won
- Suns vs. NuggetsNuggets won
- Suns vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 120.5Over won
- Suns vs. Nuggets: O/U 232.5Over won
- Suns vs. Nuggets: O/U 233.5Over won
- Suns vs. Nuggets: O/U 234.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.