Us Midterms · resolved market
Will Young Kim advance from the CA-40 primary election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62deb9a8d72e40a658dbe8e04e3937647d29b2866e1c07737aee5641bae90c92
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Us Midtermsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Midterms is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Yes | 78c | 892.53$693 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.64 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked No | 20c | 750$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…5d19backed Yes | 78c | 717.72$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.72 | 211 | 61.1%129 W · 82 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed No | 28c | 661.29$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.66 | 244 | 33.2%81 W · 163 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed No | 23c | 594.59$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.12 | 272 | 22.1%60 W · 212 L | -15.0wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked Yes | 75c | 193$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.82 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | +2.7wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +144%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x460a…d738backed Yes | 76c | 163.41$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.56 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Yes | 72c | 100.21$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.33 | 152 | 32.9%50 W · 102 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 21c | 96.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.25 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 126 | 43.7%55 W · 71 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x897a…4194backed Yes | 70c | 63.76$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 18c | 63.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 61 | 32.8%20 W · 41 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3237…5658backed Yes | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -4.0wins | -0.36per pick | 55cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 449 | 35.2%158 W · 291 L | -37.6wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 77c | 55.22$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.7 | 248 | 31%77 W · 171 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 30c | 51.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 669 | 14.8%99 W · 570 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -66%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8862…bbf5backed Yes | 75c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.25 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 73cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb042…14f3backed Yes | 77c | 21.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed Yes | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Midterms and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Young Kim advance from the CA-40 primary election?this page
- Will Esther Kim Varet advance from the CA-40 primary election?No won
- Will Joe Kerr advance from the CA-40 primary election?No won
- Will Ken Calvert advance from the CA-40 primary election?Yes won
- Will Nina Linh advance from the CA-40 primary election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.