CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MOUZ NXT (BO3)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62ef06981ef6449b481d1d21bb93fe1c8ee5aa54dfdaa8d8b3b7878a54a3917a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- MOUZ NXTof ASTRAL, MOUZ NXT
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,094
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,094 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d58…9a15backed ASTRAL | 25c | 7,204$1,791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,791.03 | 144 | 41.7%60 W · 84 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1df4…0540backed MOUZ NXT | 74c | 2,694$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$694.43 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf802…d91dbacked MOUZ NXT | 75c | 2,683$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.11 | 227 | 54.2%123 W · 104 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed ASTRAL | 25c | 2,288$574 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$573.55 | 508 | 33.5%170 W · 338 L | +14.2wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5fc…d802backed ASTRAL | 5c | 1,600$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked ASTRAL | 4c | 1,456$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.92 | 110 | 2.7%3 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdac9…56e7backed MOUZ NXT | 67c | 1,191$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.96 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +3.0wins | +0.16per pick | 42cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…a13fbacked MOUZ NXT | 64c | 925$588 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.09 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed ASTRAL | 48c | 622.95$297 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.97 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a22…c3b5backed ASTRAL | 26c | 483.35$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +87.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac0c…739cbacked ASTRAL | 17c | 469.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 660 | 34.1%225 W · 435 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked MOUZ NXT | 72c | 427.7$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.95 | 1,262 | 46.9%592 W · 670 L | -34.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa226…5092backed ASTRAL | 19c | 398.85$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.75 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -5.1wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed ASTRAL | 16c | 312.5$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56e1…8b17backed ASTRAL | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9767…b5c4backed ASTRAL | 40c | 251.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…02aabacked ASTRAL | 54c | 225.88$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.92 | 77 | 36.4%28 W · 49 L | -6.2wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x237b…dcc0backed ASTRAL | 26c | 220$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ae…82bdbacked ASTRAL | 29c | 202$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.57 | 160 | 33.8%54 W · 106 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64aa…e774backed ASTRAL | 36c | 191.81$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked MOUZ NXT | 74c | 191$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe889…d0c3backed ASTRAL | 38c | 157.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 94 | 33%31 W · 63 L | -10.2wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x08f7…d16abacked MOUZ NXT | 67c | 150$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x334d…45c4backed MOUZ NXT | 59c | 147.46$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.46 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed MOUZ NXT | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 133 | 63.9%85 W · 48 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3228…b4e3backed MOUZ NXT | 75c | 132.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.65 | 47 | 36.2%17 W · 30 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16ea…6df7backed ASTRAL | 26c | 129.17$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.58 | 217 | 23%50 W · 167 L | -35.4wins | -0.16per pick | 39cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe758…c5afbacked MOUZ NXT | 68c | 102.94$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.94 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0d…54f7backed ASTRAL | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe06c…62aebacked ASTRAL | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 99 | 38.4%38 W · 61 L | -7.5wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3b64…d59ebacked ASTRAL | 16c | 69.88$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b15…a031backed MOUZ NXT | 78c | 58.6$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf035…0924backed MOUZ NXT | 72c | 46.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 428 | 45.6%195 W · 233 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed MOUZ NXT | 73c | 41.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 783 | 48.4%379 W · 404 L | +17.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07fe…d894backed ASTRAL | 35c | 41$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65ce…b90bbacked MOUZ NXT | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 162 | 40.1%65 W · 97 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9a…3487backed MOUZ NXT | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x11fa…ebf3backed MOUZ NXT | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.25per pick | 48cpaid | -58.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…0b8dbacked ASTRAL | 31c | 33.17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2bf…ceeabacked ASTRAL | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…bf70backed MOUZ NXT | 75c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5e…bf98backed MOUZ NXT | 75c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a0b…ac22backed MOUZ NXT | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MOUZ NXT (BO3)this page
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MOUZ NXT - Map 1 WinnerMOUZ NXT won
- Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MOUZ NXT - Map 2 WinnerMOUZ NXT won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.