NHL · resolved market
Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6306d7d060d1f3f6672969649587b52ae0456489dec9e7e584afba33be5418ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,973
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,183
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,973 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ad…f376backed Under | 75c | 4,000$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef3d…0fc4backed Under | 75c | 3,300$2,475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,475 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 2c | 1,470$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.05 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 75c | 1,000$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Over | 25c | 935.01$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$701.25 | 115 | 47%54 W · 61 L | +6.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…d437backed Under | 75c | 600$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 32c | 262.07$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.37 | 893 | 55.5%496 W · 397 L | +67.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9348…8cfbbacked Over | 33c | 253.92$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.32 | 115 | 57.4%66 W · 49 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7c08…af98backed Under | 75c | 200.13$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 337 | 56.4%190 W · 147 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 48c | 173.33$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.53 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Over | 26c | 163.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.82 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over | 26c | 163.27$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.82 | 418 | 42.8%179 W · 239 L | -5.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Under | 16c | 140$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 10c | 140$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce27…8a7dbacked Over | 27c | 111.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.11 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Under | 68c | 110$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 332 | 51.5%171 W · 161 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Under | 74c | 88$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.12 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Under | 68c | 55.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.53 | 336 | 47.9%161 W · 175 L | -5.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 70c | 52$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.57 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f6d…3070backed Under | 28c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 48.2%41 W · 44 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe048…781abacked Over | 27c | 45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.35per pick | 27cpaid | +130%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Under | 73c | 41$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 243 | 46.1%112 W · 131 L | -12.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 25c | 40.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.1 | 1,190 | 50.7%603 W · 587 L | +13.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f6…5b6cbacked Under | 75c | 38$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Over | 29c | 35.58$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.26 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…20fabacked Under | 71c | 30.01$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Under | 72c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafcf…72f6backed Under | 76c | 26.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.30per pick | 70cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 57c | 24.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed Under | 57c | 21.91$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd067…c5a4backed Under | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 75cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 71c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 227 | 59.5%135 W · 92 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked Under | 74c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5this page
- Penguins vs. IslandersPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)Penguins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.