NHL · resolved market
Spread: Islanders (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7cef5ba6b1177338015ca862b411f34a08aa7ec30024063de2242f41f9b128c4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Penguinsof Islanders, Penguins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,924
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,218
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,924 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Penguins | 67c | 1,210$811 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399.3 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Islanders | 33c | 938.66$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.23 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Islanders | 32c | 695.78$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.61 | 572 | 38.1%218 W · 354 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Islanders | 29c | 340.61$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.25 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Penguins | 44c | 330.05$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.83 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…3d6abacked Penguins | 67c | 317.72$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.85 | 177 | 61.6%109 W · 68 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec56…dd09backed Penguins | 67c | 300$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99 | 270 | 49.6%134 W · 136 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Islanders | 20c | 251.17$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.02 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf90…8e17backed Penguins | 67c | 222.96$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.58 | 339 | 41.3%140 W · 199 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x482a…7defbacked Islanders | 32c | 199.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea78…a74ebacked Islanders | 33c | 195.35$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.47 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -5.6wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Islanders | 55c | 181$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Penguins | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x116c…e162backed Islanders | 33c | 127.56$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 110 | 58.2%64 W · 46 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Penguins | 68c | 127.16$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.69 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Penguins | 71c | 111.28$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.27 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Islanders | 31c | 102.94$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.1 | 594 | 50.8%302 W · 292 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Penguins | 46c | 96.18$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.19 | 185 | 47.6%88 W · 97 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Penguins | 70c | 95.92$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.78 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…eeb8backed Penguins | 69c | 93.78$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 46 | 67.4%31 W · 15 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 73cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe31…6573backed Islanders | 32c | 88.08$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 210 | 42.4%89 W · 121 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Islanders | 39c | 85.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.33 | 295 | 53.6%158 W · 137 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked Islanders | 58c | 80$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.4 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +11.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Penguins | 70c | 71.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.58 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Islanders | 33c | 59.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 212 | 53.3%113 W · 99 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae1c…3678backed Islanders | 33c | 59.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 156 | 51.9%81 W · 75 L | +7.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Islanders | 50c | 59.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Penguins | 71c | 48.69$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Penguins | 67c | 46.39$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Islanders | 32c | 46.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 48 | 45.8%22 W · 26 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Islanders | 55c | 44.33$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 121 | 52.1%63 W · 58 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63f6…5b6cbacked Penguins | 69c | 41.46$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.85 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.16per pick | 69cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec66…e58fbacked Penguins | 71c | 39.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 336 | 60.7%204 W · 132 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Islanders | 34c | 38.06$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.11 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f16…b5b9backed Penguins | 47c | 36.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Penguins | 68c | 36.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.69 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4bd…6cecbacked Islanders | 53c | 36.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe96…4a6dbacked Penguins | 68c | 35.77$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.44 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 73cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Islanders | 33c | 35.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 222 | 55.9%124 W · 98 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Penguins | 69c | 31.8$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Penguins | 68c | 31.7$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.14 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81e…8ab9backed Penguins | 70c | 31.04$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.37 | 230 | 63%145 W · 85 L | +11.1wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Penguins | 65c | 30.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Penguins | 71c | 29.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa146…1d57backed Penguins | 68c | 29.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Penguins | 71c | 28.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 498 | 51%254 W · 244 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Penguins | 71c | 27.89$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50fd…ee77backed Penguins | 71c | 27.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 227 | 63.4%144 W · 83 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Islanders | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 208 | 55.8%116 W · 92 L | +10.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Penguins | 73c | 23.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 1,846 | 57.2%1,055 W · 791 L | +85.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Penguins | 61c | 20.46$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Penguins | 71c | 19.47$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Islanders (-1.5)this page
- Penguins vs. IslandersPenguins won
- Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 4.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5Over won
- Penguins vs. Islanders: O/U 7.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.