Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6320d43bf61d91559b72b806027fc800b12a98588cb0052a9658e3373e488f75
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,371
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,244
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,371 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b4e…d839backed Yes | 23c | 434.3$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.07 | 227 | 28.6%65 W · 162 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 31c | 357.36$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 30c | 343.18$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.53 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 261.21$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.98 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 31c | 199.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x167e…0f16backed No | 68c | 167.89$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.63 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 151.33$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 76c | 138.39$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 27c | 116.07$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 194 | 27.3%53 W · 141 L | -6.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 78c | 103$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.35 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97c5…018bbacked No | 79c | 98.37$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.66 | 46 | 65.2%30 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 97.83$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.62 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 26c | 73.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.86 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 70.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 76c | 65.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.49 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2d…2e71backed No | 77c | 65.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 28c | 61.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed No | 71c | 59.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 31c | 56.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 71c | 53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 24c | 45.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 29c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 67c | 40.63$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 33c | 40$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 80c | 39.23$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.93 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc00c…ab4abacked No | 70c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 54 | 79.6%43 W · 11 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 70c | 32.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.86 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 72c | 30.33$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.49 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6390…9bf0backed No | 70c | 20.74$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd639…18b9backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd55b…9469backed No | 75c | 19.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 71c | 19.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.54 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f37…1410backed No | 70c | 18.67$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 849 | 30.6%260 W · 589 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +28%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 18.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 69c | 17.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked No | 78c | 16.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9a…10ffbacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 40 | 70%28 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.