Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9fc45be48faa072bf58296160d779c240b5500c6d98a72d9878556a19340734b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,525
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,293
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,525 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 99 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 65c | 285.79$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.43 | 12,477 | 46.8%5,840 W · 6,637 L | -43.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18c9…1e8abacked Yes | 31c | 235.98$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.18 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +6.5wins | +0.34per pick | 34cpaid | +195.8%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x36e1…eb43backed No | 67c | 235.56$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.67 | 165 | 52.1%86 W · 79 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 200.32$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 8,309 | 49.2%4,089 W · 4,220 L | +271.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf136…5941backed Yes | 41c | 196.78$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.51 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +5.2wins | +0.21per pick | 43cpaid | +54.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 45c | 180.75$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.94 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 11c | 178.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.73 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbe…f8b0backed No | 69c | 176.32$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 34c | 176.23$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.36 | 1,078 | 36.5%393 W · 685 L | +25.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 41c | 174.47$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.66 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 34c | 150$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.47 | 2,743 | 29.7%816 W · 1,927 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5eb5…d2c8backed No | 70c | 149.98$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.99 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 55c | 144.44$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5184…1363backed Yes | 37c | 134.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.32 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.18per pick | 45cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 23c | 128.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.75 | 619 | 29.4%182 W · 437 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd7…fa0cbacked Yes | 40c | 124.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 9c | 119.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.27 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 32c | 114.76$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.78 | 4,905 | 53.4%2,621 W · 2,284 L | +33.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 107$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.13 | 5,795 | 60%3,479 W · 2,316 L | -110.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 13c | 104.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.25 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 100.94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.44 | 9,885 | 45.9%4,540 W · 5,345 L | -302.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9791…a14abacked Yes | 73c | 100.73$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.07 | 195 | 61.5%120 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f8…bfa5backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf32c…cc9abacked Yes | 43c | 92.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.89 | 199 | 27.1%54 W · 145 L | -7.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…7efbbacked Yes | 21c | 90.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.02 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf3…8366backed No | 16c | 89.96$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 29c | 88$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 490 | 24.9%122 W · 368 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 31c | 86$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 2,260 | 58.3%1,318 W · 942 L | +85.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 79c | 86$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 2,228 | 57%1,269 W · 959 L | +69.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9a…e084backed No | 71c | 82.82$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 73cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e0c…dd26backed Yes | 44c | 79.98$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.79 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37f…28bebacked Yes | 19c | 79.33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.21 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +16%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed Yes | 39c | 77.71$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.19 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 23c | 76.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 58c | 74.04$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.78 | 2,236 | 58.1%1,300 W · 936 L | +83.9wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked No | 24c | 72.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.23 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x88ee…3e8bbacked Yes | 18c | 71.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.8 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 65.5$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 3,411 | 31.1%1,062 W · 2,349 L | -37.3wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 70c | 64.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 2,208 | 59.2%1,307 W · 901 L | +111.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 57c | 64.59$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 6,857 | 53.1%3,642 W · 3,215 L | +417.4wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 63.04$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 12,879 | 20.4%2,624 W · 10,255 L | -2,688.9wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 27-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 51c | 62.16$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.32 | 512 | 47.1%241 W · 271 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 23c | 61.6$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.53 | 466 | 47.4%221 W · 245 L | +46.7wins | +0.10per pick | 37cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 60$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.96 | 5,478 | 56%3,069 W · 2,409 L | -123.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 44c | 57.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.69 | 3,821 | 61.1%2,336 W · 1,485 L | -35.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9382…dd19backed Yes | 34c | 57.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.57 | 85 | 15.3%13 W · 72 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 53c | 56.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.41 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 38c | 54$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 63c | 53.41$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.01 | 2,252 | 56.6%1,275 W · 977 L | +64.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 633 | 49.9%316 W · 317 L | +31.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 47c | 50.31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.66 | 608 | 19.6%119 W · 489 L | -6.0wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 3,980 | 47.3%1,884 W · 2,096 L | +71.1wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4,014 | 35.6%1,428 W · 2,586 L | +41.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee01…b01fbacked No | 59c | 48.95$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3942…39d7backed No | 23c | 45.29$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 297 | 17.2%51 W · 246 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 78c | 45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.05 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 61c | 42.89$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.03 | 1,611 | 61.8%995 W · 616 L | +17.6wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 38c | 41.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.76 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9784…8078backed No | 54c | 41.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 41.25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 7,564 | 37.5%2,840 W · 4,724 L | +95.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 66c | 40.98$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 190 | 57.9%110 W · 80 L | -9.5wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ec…31b6backed Yes | 39c | 38.84$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.84 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +47%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 46c | 38.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 32c | 38.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 34c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.08 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d26…2bb9backed Yes | 77c | 35.06$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…44ecbacked No | 33c | 33.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.05 | 2,230 | 56.9%1,269 W · 961 L | +64.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 2,036 | 61.7%1,256 W · 780 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 72c | 29.72$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.41 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 68c | 29.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 68c | 29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.65 | 1,003 | 71%712 W · 291 L | +21.3wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.57 | 876 | 50.2%440 W · 436 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd918…aa30backed Yes | 46c | 27.27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -63%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 26.94$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 51c | 26.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 61c | 25.62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 66c | 25$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 50c | 24.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 3,050 | 40.5%1,235 W · 1,815 L | -121.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 69c | 24.23$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.65 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,422 | 35.5%860 W · 1,562 L | +24.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 72c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 2,193 | 57%1,249 W · 944 L | +68.5wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 53c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 3,111 | 61.7%1,921 W · 1,190 L | -31.3wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 70c | 21$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fa9…a323backed No | 64c | 20.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.31 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -6.4wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x94c0…a805backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3de3…9fffbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdd4…05ebbacked No | 66c | 19.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 163 | 54%88 W · 75 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 70c | 19.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 64c | 18.83$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 73c | 18.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.56 | 3,686 | 33.8%1,246 W · 2,440 L | -190.4wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41c3…4d56backed No | 64c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | -4.8wins | -0.13per pick | 69cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 77c | 15.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.59 | 2,200 | 56%1,233 W · 967 L | +54.0wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 77c | 15.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.5 | 1,087 | 51.9%564 W · 523 L | +75.0wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe712…9a10backed No | 67c | 15$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 876 | 47.9%420 W · 456 L | +40.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on May 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on May 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.