Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x633002ae5f45831c68ca1aed260e0390dddabd111b062e75222a26d969276eba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,285
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x572e…872bbacked Yes | 35c | 737.24$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.35 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 39c | 260.21$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcd0…b52fbacked Yes | 48c | 259.38$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 229 | 32.3%74 W · 155 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 55c | 214.16$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.65 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x840a…63ccbacked Yes | 31c | 205.48$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 73c | 179$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 64c | 125.79$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.85 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e61…a88abacked Yes | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 40cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef62…0179backed Yes | 43c | 105.67$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab18…467dbacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | +14.2wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 55c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.5 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 88.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.13 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 72c | 87.67$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.92 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 30c | 80.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.98 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 79.94$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.19 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 59c | 69.8$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.62 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 50c | 69.58$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.79 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a8…9f68backed Yes | 43c | 66.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 346 | 33.8%117 W · 229 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 25c | 65.37$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 77c | 61.92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.54 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f4c…ea41backed Yes | 31c | 59.89$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 710 | 31.5%224 W · 486 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 63c | 59.28$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.11 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3288…b8cebacked No | 58c | 58.39$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 57c | 58$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 25c | 52.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.22 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…c6ddbacked Yes | 39c | 51.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 250 | 49.2%123 W · 127 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 50.41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.67 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc9…6dfdbacked No | 65c | 50.28$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.65 | 205 | 74.6%153 W · 52 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66a2…3538backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -3.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed Yes | 47c | 49.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 542 | 32.3%175 W · 367 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb5…de0cbacked Yes | 46c | 43.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -5.0wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x737d…d0febacked No | 55c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.23 | 66 | 62.1%41 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x470b…c331backed Yes | 54c | 41$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.14 | 147 | 44.2%65 W · 82 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fd…5c4fbacked No | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -11.2wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 36c | 36.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 58c | 34.47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 43c | 33.98$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 54c | 32.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 32.33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 42c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.51 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 74c | 29.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 28.44$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b72…a958backed No | 74c | 26.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 686 | 45.8%314 W · 372 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5d…3384backed No | 75c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.52 | 282 | 70.2%198 W · 84 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 43c | 26.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb00f…3e60backed Yes | 48c | 25.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.94 | 79 | 55.7%44 W · 35 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 42c | 24.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed Yes | 45c | 24.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…a95abacked No | 52c | 23.31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 68c | 22.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 21.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 21.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.09 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bc3…4972backed Yes | 57c | 19.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 46 | 43.5%20 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3a2…2c18backed No | 71c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.16 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 57c | 17.67$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked No | 64c | 16.2$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on May 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on May 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on May 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C or higher on May 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.