MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63486e778060cfb3b4b11d7c1cc95ae381266785ebcd34be3742ea41c185de01
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cleveland Guardiansof Cleveland Guardians, Minnesota Twins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,519
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,459
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,519 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 3,147$1,874 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,873.55 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 2,657$1,062 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 75c | 980.75$739 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.34 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 575.66$230 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeef6…cd4cbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 561.52$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.3 | 556 | 53.4%297 W · 259 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Minnesota Twins | 60c | 519.28$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.32 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd03b…184cbacked Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 515.58$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.34 | 284 | 53.9%153 W · 131 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b8d…bb92backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 300$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177 | 586 | 52.7%309 W · 277 L | +14.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 277.01$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.1 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Minnesota Twins | 24c | 258.83$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.12 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Cleveland Guardians | 44c | 188.02$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.24 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Minnesota Twins | 26c | 169.04$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x472c…eaeabacked Minnesota Twins | 25c | 168$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Cleveland Guardians | 30c | 155$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Minnesota Twins | 25c | 151$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.75 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 149$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Cleveland Guardians | 40c | 133.71$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.23 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Cleveland Guardians | 43c | 91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.87 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Minnesota Twins | 24c | 83.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 75.4$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.45 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 73.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.31 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 65$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.35 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Minnesota Twins | 57c | 57.91$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cf…6b0bbacked Minnesota Twins | 59c | 50.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Minnesota Twins | 25c | 49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 826 | 36.6%302 W · 524 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cleveland Guardians | 39c | 48.24$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.26 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Minnesota Twins | 58c | 42.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.19 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8255…4261backed Cleveland Guardians | 49c | 40.08$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.44 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Cleveland Guardians | 34c | 36.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.73 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab8b…24ffbacked Minnesota Twins | 48c | 35.46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 248 | 43.5%108 W · 140 L | -13.2wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -23%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 34.11$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.13 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea58…b635backed Cleveland Guardians | 46c | 32.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 167 | 34.7%58 W · 109 L | -17.3wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Cleveland Guardians | 41c | 32.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Cleveland Guardians | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Cleveland Guardians | 50c | 21.26$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.59 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6455…caf4backed Minnesota Twins | 59c | 21.19$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.