MLB · resolved market
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6c4366cd76742832272c7981fb32bbed4afa7ee718e1756aa35b50d6ff2bcfe0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,945
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,945 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 49c | 40,024$19,612 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,412.34 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Over | 51c | 19,608$10,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,000 | 1,043 | 49%511 W · 532 L | +3.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 51c | 9,804$5,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,000 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 51c | 1,775$905 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$905.38 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 51c | 1,633$833 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$832.83 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 51c | 1,038$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.24 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Over | 28c | 1,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Over | 51c | 962.47$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.86 | 1,379 | 50.6%698 W · 681 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 51c | 962.16$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.7 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 51c | 962.02$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.63 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Over | 51c | 706.25$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.19 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbe…1f4abacked Under | 53c | 566.04$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.04 | 77 | 53.2%41 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 72c | 520.81$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.92 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…509dbacked Under | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 243 | 50.2%122 W · 121 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Over | 51c | 385.8$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.76 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 51c | 244.9$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.9 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 51c | 239$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.89 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 50c | 199$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a0…ec9dbacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 382 | 52.1%199 W · 183 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…3ebebacked Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 404 | 47.8%193 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 63c | 160$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.2 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 157.61$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 49c | 152.93$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.05 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 37c | 134$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.58 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 50c | 130$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Over | 42c | 118$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.56 | 344 | 43.9%151 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 58c | 113$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.46 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Over | 32c | 109.84$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.15 | 295 | 49.8%147 W · 148 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29f…dc4ebacked Over | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 51c | 98.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…abe3backed Over | 51c | 98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 351 | 49.3%173 W · 178 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0098…71e0backed Over | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 152 | 52%79 W · 73 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86ee…511fbacked Under | 50c | 69.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.72 | 243 | 50.6%123 W · 120 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf655…7f1abacked Over | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 412 | 36.7%151 W · 261 L | -16.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Under | 54c | 56.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.86 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe14a…62bebacked Over | 51c | 53$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 151 | 45.7%69 W · 82 L | -4.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x19b7…9ee6backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,038 | 51.7%537 W · 501 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 56c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.01 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc730…c568backed Over | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 357 | 47.6%170 W · 187 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa96b…7d92backed Under | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 190 | 41.1%78 W · 112 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 44c | 32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 51c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea94…0b53backed Over | 51c | 28.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…2581backed Under | 68c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.6wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 8.5this page
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota TwinsCleveland Guardians won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 5.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 6.5Over won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 7.5Under won
- Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cleveland Guardians (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
- Spread: Minnesota Twins (-1.5)Cleveland Guardians won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.