MLB · resolved market
Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x637250598731962f2da5b40d8d5bea8951002c18ebc0ac48f148356b9bdc4db0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Miami Marlins, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 37c | 438.31$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.79 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 320.93$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.8 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Miami Marlins | 22c | 245.85$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.45 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Cincinnati Reds | 56c | 203.08$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.29 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Miami Marlins | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.42 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x05b2…953bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 75c | 96$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 109 | 41.3%45 W · 64 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 53.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.68 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Cincinnati Reds | 57c | 35.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 31.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.69 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05c5…6a69backed Cincinnati Reds | 74c | 14.87$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 473 | 58.4%276 W · 197 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.