MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59521005ac0ecc3e9861b858b816f28f0a2e4acb93d88e84dc6ad16201d31b10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,457
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,713
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,457 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 59c | 11,514$6,793 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,720.57 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 59c | 8,445$4,992 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,452.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 40c | 6,800$2,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,720 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Over | 41c | 2,828$1,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,159.5 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 31c | 2,168$667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$667.06 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 42c | 2,085$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$877 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 41c | 2,055$840 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$839.6 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8efa…894cbacked Over | 40c | 2,038$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.37 | 454 | 45.2%205 W · 249 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 40c | 1,988$795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$795.25 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 54c | 1,263$682 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.91 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 46c | 908.31$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.41 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 72c | 728.93$523 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.56 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 43c | 581.7$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.52 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8606…db26backed Under | 57c | 544.24$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.02 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 66c | 540.27$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.4 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 58c | 480.04$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.62 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 44c | 359$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.96 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 43c | 309.94$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.48 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 41c | 300$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Over | 44c | 289$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.16 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 43c | 276$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.67 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 73c | 268.64$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.29 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc7…4d38backed Over | 43c | 231.55$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.57 | 173 | 46.2%80 W · 93 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 61c | 224$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 59c | 205$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.05 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 53c | 197.34$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.75 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Over | 17c | 167.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.91 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 41c | 139$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f8…68ccbacked Over | 40c | 139$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.6 | 450 | 45.8%206 W · 244 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 46c | 119.58$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.01 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 62c | 97.25$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.94 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 19c | 96.8$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.97 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43ed…6232backed Under | 63c | 96$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.52 | 182 | 44.5%81 W · 101 L | -14.3wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 27c | 94.47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.51 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 46c | 85.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.17 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…68b6backed Over | 42c | 80$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 41c | 78$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 31c | 76.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.53 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe481…d138backed Over | 46c | 64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.44 | 882 | 47.7%421 W · 461 L | +3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…4551backed Over | 42c | 48.45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 211 | 52.6%111 W · 100 L | +7.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Over | 34c | 39.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.48 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 42c | 38.11$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf949…f512backed Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 59c | 23.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.44 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.