MLB · resolved market
Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6afe16ac16fec0e64e6d598399653a11bb0635f9d4e465b301cf776fd7fd9419
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Miami Marlinsof Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,508
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 8,159$2,529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,529.26 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 3,374$2,328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,046.22 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 2,620$1,805 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$815.47 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 1,842$1,275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.26 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 1,397$481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$481.03 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Miami Marlins | 70c | 1,000$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 30c | 482.2$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.24 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Miami Marlins | 71c | 324.63$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.91 | 1,796 | 43.8%786 W · 1,010 L | -33.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 271.34$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.12 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 473 | 45.7%216 W · 257 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 179.98$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.79 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Cincinnati Reds | 32c | 173.44$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 118.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.58 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Cincinnati Reds | 31c | 109$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Cincinnati Reds | 28c | 104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.63 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 99.8$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.19 | 587 | 46%270 W · 317 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 89.1$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.62 | 470 | 56.6%266 W · 204 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 84.09$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.07 | 733 | 55.3%405 W · 328 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 74.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.61 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 73.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.64 | 268 | 57.1%153 W · 115 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Cincinnati Reds | 35c | 51.84$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.29 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95f5…779fbacked Miami Marlins | 72c | 48.73$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 1,056 | 44.3%468 W · 588 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Miami Marlins | 67c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.85 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe392…d868backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 34.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.74 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +6.1wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Miami Marlins | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Cincinnati Reds | 39c | 27.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Miami Marlins | 69c | 24.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Miami Marlins | 76c | 20.94$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.94 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Miami Marlins | 70c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 873 | 70.1%612 W · 261 L | +91.6wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.