MLB · resolved market
Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x69efa84824a146066f8466a540d7cb397a798d69f63cf0a7311b937ab5cdd4d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $122,838
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $122,918
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $122,838 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4bff…fc26backed Over | 50c | 100,000$50,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,000 | 436 | 47%205 W · 231 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16bb…8492backed Under | 50c | 54,913$27,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,554.67 | 865 | 48.7%421 W · 444 L | -8.9wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f3e…bcf8backed Under | 50c | 22,792$11,396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,395.9 | 62 | 64.5%40 W · 22 L | +8.8wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +28%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x30c1…9f91backed Under | 50c | 10,000$5,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,000 | 123 | 43.1%53 W · 70 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39d3…9ef0backed Under | 50c | 6,950$3,475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,474.79 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 50c | 4,611$2,312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.39 | 11,356 | 52.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L | +209.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 489 | 52.8%258 W · 231 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Under | 50c | 2,906$1,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,449.63 | 1,291 | 51%658 W · 633 L | -15.5wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 46c | 2,702$1,238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,237.5 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5811…0976backed Over | 50c | 1,534$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$767.1 | 1,555 | 48.9%761 W · 794 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Over | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 58c | 1,463$855 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$607.98 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 50c | 1,426$713 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.9 | 457 | 48.6%222 W · 235 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 50c | 1,408$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703.55 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dd2…14c2backed Under | 45c | 1,112$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.1 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b11…5375backed Over | 51c | 1,097$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.45 | 1,777 | 49.5%880 W · 897 L | +25.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 50c | 1,000$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502 | 5,400 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L | +17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 883.69$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.22 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 325.45$218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.73 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over | 26c | 316.64$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Over | 51c | 300$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.2 | 1,206 | 53.7%648 W · 558 L | +29.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 52c | 271.43$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 57c | 242.26$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.18 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb428…74c8backed Under | 49c | 238.4$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.85 | 442 | 45.5%201 W · 241 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 55c | 222.22$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.22 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Over | 5c | 217.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17d9…84afbacked Over | 50c | 210$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 94 | 46.8%44 W · 50 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59b6…307fbacked Under | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 812 | 57.3%465 W · 347 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c1e…befebacked Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 285 | 53%151 W · 134 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 52c | 179.99$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.29 | 2,376 | 49.7%1,182 W · 1,194 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 43c | 153.43$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 51c | 151.99$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.52 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6feb…c082backed Under | 50c | 150.72$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.36 | 92 | 48.9%45 W · 47 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49c5…3de7backed Over | 52c | 140.96$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.58 | 341 | 49.3%168 W · 173 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked Over | 51c | 137.98$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.37 | 546 | 42.5%232 W · 314 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b1d…a01abacked Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 52.5%32 W · 29 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 27c | 112.78$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Under | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.43 | 1,851 | 53.1%982 W · 869 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e53…922dbacked Under | 49c | 102.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.04 | 297 | 47.1%140 W · 157 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87f7…8f45backed Over | 46c | 100.35$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.38 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa057…d092backed Over | 46c | 99.57$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.02 | 2,144 | 39.6%849 W · 1,295 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Under | 51c | 83.88$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.1 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c96…0a39backed Over | 49c | 71.43$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Under | 48c | 66.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.68 | 787 | 54.6%430 W · 357 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c5b…ec01backed Under | 46c | 64.81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 220 | 50.5%111 W · 109 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e1…9bc1backed Under | 50c | 49.63$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 360 | 50.3%181 W · 179 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3108…8a52backed Under | 50c | 49.42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b5…941abacked Under | 47c | 45.67$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.21 | 237 | 58.6%139 W · 98 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…e9d7backed Over | 50c | 45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 348 | 46.8%163 W · 185 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f20…5d31backed Over | 49c | 42.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.98 | 129 | 46.5%60 W · 69 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked Over | 55c | 42.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 65c | 39.61$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 51c | 39.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,944 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,543 L | +4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 59c | 39.31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 1,725 | 50.1%864 W · 861 L | -4.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Under | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9412…730ebacked Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 54.2%39 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7e…dd3cbacked Over | 51c | 37.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 46c | 37.3$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 478 | 52.3%250 W · 228 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72d0…c89bbacked Over | 38c | 35.66$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 110 | 37.3%41 W · 69 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 45c | 34.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,722 | 50.3%867 W · 855 L | +55.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Over | 43c | 34.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5e…153bbacked Over | 53c | 30.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 115 | 50.4%58 W · 57 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 51c | 29.67$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 176 | 47.2%83 W · 93 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe935…3991backed Over | 46c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 76c | 27.89$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e1b…aa71backed Under | 50c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 100 | 48%48 W · 52 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Under | 44c | 25.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 190 | 51.1%97 W · 93 L | +8.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b18…dd26backed Over | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 40 | 57.5%23 W · 17 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 56c | 18.08$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 8.5this page
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati RedsMiami Marlins won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 10.5Under won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 3.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 4.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 6.5Over won
- Miami Marlins vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.