Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 23?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6390a6eba23b58c1295bdedbbc970f4052a13424eb162f80297420e2ab5a9ae3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,996
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,996 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 33c | 1,447$473 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.48 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 533.85$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.47 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 65c | 509$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.34 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 67c | 340.78$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.46 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 204.15$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.89 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 195$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.58 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 66c | 161.67$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.58 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 38c | 152.19$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.25 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 33c | 152.06$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 67c | 134$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.78 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0da…3ff6backed No | 62c | 124$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.12 | 176 | 58%102 W · 74 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1d9…ec8abacked Yes | 20c | 106.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.03 | 156 | 30.8%48 W · 108 L | +8.9wins | +0.06per pick | 25cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 95.82$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.33 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 64c | 92.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 64c | 89.31$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 65c | 82.63$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 26c | 79.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…32cebacked Yes | 38c | 72.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 166 | 56.6%94 W · 72 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11b0…f988backed Yes | 38c | 72.89$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 155 | 56.1%87 W · 68 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 69.91$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.05 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 31c | 65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.39 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 61c | 59.5$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc50c…8d41backed No | 63c | 53.78$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.68 | 423 | 66.4%281 W · 142 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 40c | 53.74$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.52 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed Yes | 35c | 53.02$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 53$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.73 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 39c | 52.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 35c | 52.14$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 67c | 52$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 39c | 49.09$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…faeabacked No | 73c | 44$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.09 | 311 | 70.7%220 W · 91 L | +42.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +30.8%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 73c | 43.69$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 75c | 43.44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.9 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c2…6b76backed No | 69c | 41.99$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 72cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 34c | 41.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 36c | 41.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d8a…94cbbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 89 | 49.4%44 W · 45 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed No | 68c | 39.98$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.79 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 36c | 36.57$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.34 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7903…57f6backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 277 | 69%191 W · 86 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32e0…3884backed Yes | 36c | 30.29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 110 | 25.5%28 W · 82 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4122backed No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 85 | 61.2%52 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 35c | 29.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…48fabacked Yes | 36c | 27.78$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -10.6wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf79e…e434backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 24 | 83.3%20 W · 4 L | +5.0wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41e6…66b7backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 468 | 57.3%268 W · 200 L | -22.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea31…a889backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 199 | 65.3%130 W · 69 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 68c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.39 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 64c | 18.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 64c | 18.03$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.49 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 61c | 17.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 62c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 16.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 64c | 16.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 100-101°F on July 23?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 102-103°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 96-97°F on July 23?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 23?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.