TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Sao Paulo: Gustavo Heide vs Roman Andres Burruchaga

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Roman Andres Burruchagaof Gustavo Heide, Roman Andres Burruchaga
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,954

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,954 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc765…9322backed Roman Andres Burruchaga46c4,352$2,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,349.82580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+43.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed Roman Andres Burruchaga49c3,236$1,591 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,645.1246473.3%340 W · 124 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe5af…f9e3backed Roman Andres Burruchaga33c2,471$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,661.2830225.8%78 W · 224 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Gustavo Heide68c2,094$1,430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,430.162,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga64c1,706$1,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.176,59650.7%3,341 W · 3,255 L+259.5wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ab0…ddd0backed Roman Andres Burruchaga67c1,488$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.137064.3%45 W · 25 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Gustavo Heide57c1,478$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.3311,32543.4%4,912 W · 6,413 L+18.6wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Gustavo Heide44c1,419$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.622,74630.8%846 W · 1,900 L-67.1wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-36.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Gustavo Heide29c1,196$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.899,23144.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L-241.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Gustavo Heide51c1,097$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$554.52,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x223f…2050backed Gustavo Heide51c921.1$469 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$468.6950731.2%158 W · 349 L-41.2wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-36.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Gustavo Heide33c898.04$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$296.4832031.3%100 W · 220 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Gustavo Heide75c666.67$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5007,74550.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L+93.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga50c654.06$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.254,58448.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L+35.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Gustavo Heide52c642.36$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.228,15245.3%3,695 W · 4,457 L+155.1wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21c2…6749backed Roman Andres Burruchaga29c628$182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$446.041,00846%464 W · 544 L-19.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-19.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Gustavo Heide38c617.65$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.081,80943.8%793 W · 1,016 L-2.2wins0.00per pick44cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x344b…f7fcbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga29c604$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$430.9299044.8%444 W · 546 L-10.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Gustavo Heide38c548.49$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.451,96546.4%911 W · 1,054 L+0.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2f6…679ebacked Roman Andres Burruchaga67c522.39$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.393652.8%19 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick57cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga61c514.75$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.042,22945%1,002 W · 1,227 L+3.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9fca…e8edbacked Gustavo Heide67c508$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.522853.6%15 W · 13 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+16.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4865…904dbacked Gustavo Heide76c396.63$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30037071.9%266 W · 104 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick71cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ba…6c27backed Gustavo Heide69c357.97$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2471,18662.8%745 W · 441 L-16.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc71a…f135backed Gustavo Heide34c342.03$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.292846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9694…b7adbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga64c317.78$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.022,05659.5%1,224 W · 832 L-0.8wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Roman Andres Burruchaga33c303.03$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.031,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Roman Andres Burruchaga57c298.81$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.444,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Gustavo Heide38c253.61$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.381,44438%548 W · 896 L-46.0wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-16.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Gustavo Heide39c250$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.53,86234.9%1,348 W · 2,514 L+92.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Roman Andres Burruchaga61c246.34$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.341,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Roman Andres Burruchaga46c242.62$112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.154,41151.8%2,286 W · 2,125 L+137.5wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Roman Andres Burruchaga63c239.27$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.2750852.2%265 W · 243 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c10…4e76backed Roman Andres Burruchaga28c222.59$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.5933326.4%88 W · 245 L-14.1wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-17.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Roman Andres Burruchaga35c200$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1301,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Gustavo Heide32c195$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.47,71047.8%3,685 W · 4,025 L+42.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f3…f7dfbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga60c167$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.838268.1%260 W · 122 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick67cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Roman Andres Burruchaga28c161.94$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.8836333.9%123 W · 240 L-12.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-17.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ac9…cf1abacked Roman Andres Burruchaga63c158.73$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.7340264.4%259 W · 143 L+12.8wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd320…097ebacked Gustavo Heide65c140.86$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.568825%22 W · 66 L-9.6wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-43.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6d40…4737backed Gustavo Heide80c137.86$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.861030%3 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-53.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Gustavo Heide61c132.19$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.66,74048.8%3,288 W · 3,452 L+58.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3548…14dabacked Gustavo Heide66c126.39$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.421060%6 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+27.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b24…11efbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga51c120.92$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2563965.9%421 W · 218 L+2.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Gustavo Heide78c113.37$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.721,41038.4%542 W · 868 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Roman Andres Burruchaga57c106.05$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.052,14454.2%1,162 W · 982 L-1.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Roman Andres Burruchaga51c104.07$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.91,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f2d…fbf5backed Roman Andres Burruchaga55c103$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.8557252.3%299 W · 273 L+17.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff21…d56abacked Roman Andres Burruchaga36c100.38$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.381573.3%11 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick60cpaid+19.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd610…4c9abacked Gustavo Heide36c100$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361,21233.1%401 W · 811 L-16.7wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-4.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd68e…8048backed Roman Andres Burruchaga67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3341272.8%300 W · 112 L+8.0wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dec…60c2backed Gustavo Heide60c97.83$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4734950.4%176 W · 173 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga49c95.99$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.231,85244.5%825 W · 1,027 L-20.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-18.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Roman Andres Burruchaga60c94.5$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.831,58847%746 W · 842 L-24.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Roman Andres Burruchaga62c92.63$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.327,10049.7%3,530 W · 3,570 L+107.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1dd2…9e07backed Gustavo Heide40c92.2$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.882,40451.7%1,244 W · 1,160 L+12.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6196…1a64backed Roman Andres Burruchaga65c92.08$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.0816957.4%97 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…579cbacked Gustavo Heide40c91.86$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.7455660.3%335 W · 221 L+13.6wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…1e38backed Roman Andres Burruchaga66c90.91$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.916071.7%43 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick64cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8816…7738backed Roman Andres Burruchaga30c85.97$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.181,09350.4%551 W · 542 L-18.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4748…9666backed Roman Andres Burruchaga30c83.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3348440.3%195 W · 289 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe761…4f54backed Gustavo Heide71c80.3$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.3526349.4%130 W · 133 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Roman Andres Burruchaga20c79.46$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.81,13250.3%569 W · 563 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa07d…a037backed Roman Andres Burruchaga30c78.99$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.653,27013.8%450 W · 2,820 L-549.1wins-0.17per pick31cpaid-57.4%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga26c78.23$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.131,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f2…692ebacked Roman Andres Burruchaga60c75.45$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.1853457.7%308 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick58cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc798…a8e9backed Gustavo Heide40c72.34$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9453544.1%236 W · 299 L-5.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd77…ef21backed Gustavo Heide59c71.85$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1165264.1%418 W · 234 L+21.6wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe52e…ac6dbacked Gustavo Heide72c69.44$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5017051.8%88 W · 82 L+10.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+33.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0b95…07e5backed Roman Andres Burruchaga69c66.19$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.526349.2%31 W · 32 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd88a…1eefbacked Gustavo Heide36c54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4754434.2%186 W · 358 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-2.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x0c06…bbeebacked Gustavo Heide38c51.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.327146.5%33 W · 38 L-0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd866…55e0backed Roman Andres Burruchaga54c50.47$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.2438460.4%232 W · 152 L+29.2wins+0.08per pick53cpaid+2.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfa02…8b07backed Roman Andres Burruchaga66c45.45$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.458068.8%55 W · 25 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Roman Andres Burruchaga38c44.64$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.753,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Gustavo Heide68c41.16$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286,41154.4%3,486 W · 2,925 L+283.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+26.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Roman Andres Burruchaga61c41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.9996444.2%426 W · 538 L-3.3wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3123…b44dbacked Gustavo Heide40c40$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1647153.1%250 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x622b…5a4abacked Gustavo Heide42c40$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.835040.9%143 W · 207 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70ac…0c7dbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga38c37.88$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.432,53753.6%1,361 W · 1,176 L+61.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-5.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Gustavo Heide39c37.04$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.451,24533.9%422 W · 823 L-5.6wins0.00per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2a…a58dbacked Gustavo Heide48c35.4$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0216369.3%113 W · 50 L+16.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+14.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xb8f6…4f7fbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga63c35.15$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.9533648.8%164 W · 172 L-5.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9a4…3926backed Roman Andres Burruchaga62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2659166.7%394 W · 197 L-1.1wins0.00per pick67cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b36…e95ebacked Roman Andres Burruchaga70c31.46$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.444647.8%22 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-8.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa5e3…4d7ebacked Roman Andres Burruchaga38c30.98$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.141435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-37.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga63c29$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7399056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa559…6dbbbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga58c28.84$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.1161953.3%330 W · 289 L+18.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d84…4b14backed Roman Andres Burruchaga55c25.49$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.472171.4%15 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.16per pick56cpaid+24.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0154…30f7backed Roman Andres Burruchaga63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8152457.4%301 W · 223 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3206…b10bbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga66c21.15$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.19333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.32per pick65cpaid-49.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf9ef…20ebbacked Roman Andres Burruchaga62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61,24551.9%646 W · 599 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8495…df87backed Gustavo Heide78c20$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.610266.7%68 W · 34 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick70cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a0a…e318backed Roman Andres Burruchaga70c17.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.245865.5%38 W · 20 L+5.1wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+9.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x955f…2e25backed Gustavo Heide62c17$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.546939.1%27 W · 42 L-6.3wins-0.09per pick48cpaid-17.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfc8f…3782backed Gustavo Heide69c15.47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7131434.4%108 W · 206 L-25.2wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-32.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.