Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6418b425fc15edc0f502d90251178cc2635fa6427fa01204a9b8781131666ded
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 21c | 1,068$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 23c | 406.01$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.24 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 76c | 280.69$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.9 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 80c | 241.99$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.26 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…43f4backed Yes | 42c | 231.52$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.37 | 173 | 58.4%101 W · 72 L | +14.3wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 57c | 207.12$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.31 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 30c | 205.23$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.81 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed22…6450backed No | 74c | 200.13$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.24 | 431 | 39.2%169 W · 262 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 73c | 179.18$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 39c | 174.51$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.34 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 30c | 142.87$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.75 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 77c | 135.55$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.31 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 36c | 135$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.2 | 41 | 41.5%17 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 31c | 123.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.58 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 120.04$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2ffc…c66fbacked Yes | 18c | 109.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.38 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 17c | 101$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.13 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 40c | 100.7$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.66 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 74c | 100.21$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.09 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 78c | 98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.53 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 25c | 96.15$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.04 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 21c | 89.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.96 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 22c | 82.19$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.08 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 41c | 82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked No | 54c | 80$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 21c | 75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 44c | 73.23$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 19c | 68.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.88 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 36c | 65.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.66 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca06…b2c4backed No | 80c | 62.83$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed Yes | 22c | 61.56$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.95 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 21c | 61.35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.71 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a8…c5b9backed Yes | 18c | 60.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.34 | 89 | 43.8%39 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 26c | 60$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.4 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed Yes | 23c | 56.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 53.24$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.62 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 20c | 51.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 50.32$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 27c | 47$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.18 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fec…9d17backed Yes | 36c | 41.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.77 | 51 | 52.9%27 W · 24 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca6…4beabacked Yes | 62c | 40.46$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 73 | 68.5%50 W · 23 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2df9…4534backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.42 | 257 | 47.5%122 W · 135 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…7171backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 18 | 72.2%13 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd73d…79d7backed Yes | 54c | 39.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 26c | 38.96$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.83 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 51c | 38.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 77c | 37.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 79c | 34$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 36c | 30.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bee…e91ebacked Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 79c | 30$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.7 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 49c | 29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b23…3ca8backed No | 39c | 28.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.14 | 235 | 38.3%90 W · 145 L | -11.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 61c | 27.17$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.69 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 77c | 26.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.51 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.25 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 57c | 24.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8019…2c2bbacked No | 44c | 24.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…7421backed No | 47c | 23.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46d5…1b8abacked Yes | 60c | 23.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 70c | 21.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.39 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3f…5d84backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 802 | 75.7%607 W · 195 L | +6.4wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 65c | 19.93$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed Yes | 63c | 18.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 71c | 17.24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 14.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.