Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1f597e5a571461c08e8126dcd15ceed2e35c57c5ce21b9dae88e14f1cfc1817c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,741
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,741 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 594.33$417 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.67 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 352.6$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.48 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 32c | 343.47$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 22c | 320.63$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.48 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 28c | 289.46$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.6 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 4c | 241.33$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 18c | 225.2$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 19c | 218.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.91 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes | 31c | 180.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.29 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 16c | 170.93$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.21 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 24c | 164.78$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 148.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.68 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 135.6$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 29c | 132.23$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.55 | 244 | 32.8%80 W · 164 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb4a…876bbacked Yes | 24c | 124.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 75c | 116.84$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.07 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 77c | 106.54$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.69 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 67c | 104.14$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 72c | 100.31$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.28 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 69c | 97.35$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.5 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 28c | 90$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 85.76$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.98 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 74c | 76.23$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.02 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 73.86$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 76c | 66.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 161 | 29.2%47 W · 114 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x156b…5808backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 405 | 35.6%144 W · 261 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 23c | 59.6$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 37c | 57.53$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.34 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 56.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.61 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 24c | 56.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed Yes | 28c | 55.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 438 | 48.6%213 W · 225 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 32c | 54.89$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4c…d114backed Yes | 21c | 51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.71 | 191 | 48.7%93 W · 98 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…6f6ebacked No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 141 | 61.7%87 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 74c | 48.29$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa915…879dbacked No | 61c | 46.23$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 60cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c2a…ced1backed Yes | 40c | 45.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 69c | 45.44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.07 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 61c | 44.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 72c | 44.94$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.76 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…5516backed Yes | 40c | 44.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.15per pick | 64cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc85…1631backed No | 61c | 43.92$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.13 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 33c | 39.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 545 | 47.7%260 W · 285 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0838…64f6backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 210 | 52.4%110 W · 100 L | +14.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 39c | 37.98$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf0e…c02bbacked Yes | 29c | 35$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 80c | 34.73$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5579…2db1backed Yes | 33c | 32.48$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.59 | 138 | 52.9%73 W · 65 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 64c | 31.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 76c | 29.68$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 72c | 28.37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 26.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…8c1bbacked No | 71c | 25.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 120 | 70.8%85 W · 35 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 64c | 23.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.54 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 22.61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.88 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 68c | 22.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.06 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d1f…8c58backed No | 65c | 21.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 180 | 38.9%70 W · 110 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.69 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb56c…30f3backed No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 104 | 55.8%58 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x997a…4cbebacked No | 72c | 17.86$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 195 | 65.6%128 W · 67 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58d3…c14bbacked No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 36°C on June 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 33°C or below on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on June 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 35°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 37°C on June 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 39°C on June 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.